3 reasons to watch Tennessee’s special election

This story first appeared in our weekly political newsletter, Here’s the Deal. Subscribe here.

With the weekend over, we reach the sixth House special election of the year.

Live results: Special election for Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District

It’s an interesting one. The good news: We’re here to give you a cheat sheet.

Let’s do this.

Where are these extraordinary elections?

Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. It reaches 14 counties in central and western Tennessee, including parts of Nashville as well as some of the state’s rural communities. This is a district that President Donald Trump won by 22 points in 2024.

Why are there special elections again?

The district’s former congressman, Republican Mark Green, resigned in July to take a job outside government. (Fun fact: Mark Green was featured on the PBS News Hour as part of a panel of new members of Congress in 2018. Also in this article: Current Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich.)

Why is this special election receiving national attention?

Several reasons.

Timing. This race is used as a benchmark by both parties because of its timing just before 2026. It’s a test of Republican enthusiasm in a district the Grand Old Party should win easily. But with Trump off the ballot, and amid concerns about the economy, will Republicans stay home? Or are they coming out in full force behind the MAGA movement?

Footnotes at home. Republicans are spending millions on this race back home, and they have good reasons. The race could greatly affect the life of House Speaker Mike Johnson.

The House is currently 219-213. If that seat becomes Democratic, that number would be 219-214. This may not seem like a big difference, but just wait.

Read more: Voters in Tennessee go to the polls in special House elections to test Trump’s strength

On January 5, Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene will leave office. If Democrats win Tennessee today, Greene’s departure would change the House margin to 218-214. Then, in late January, Texas holds a special election in an currently Democratic district, and Democrats are expected to win.

At that point, the margin (again, under the condition that Tennessee goes Democratic) would be an incredibly narrow 218-215. That’s just a one-seat margin for Republicans and House Speaker Johnson.

Note: In the spring, we expect two more special elections: one in Georgia for Greene’s seat, and one in New Jersey for the seat now vacated by Gov.-elect Mickey Sherrill, a Democrat. If those seats remain unchanged, it will be a seat for both Republicans and Democrats, leaving intact whatever margin the Tennessee race creates today.

Opinion polls. A recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll showed Democrats trailing in the special election by just two points. Democratic and Republican sources say this does not reflect what they see internally. But the race is clearly closer than Trump’s 22-point margin in 2024. Democrats will be happy to keep the margin within 10 points.

Who are the candidates?

The Republican is Matt Van Epps, an Army veteran who flew helicopters and went to work for Tennessee state government. He has the support of both Trump and Greene, the congressman he hopes to replace.

The Democrats chose Aftin Behn as their nominee. She is a relatively new state representative, elected in 2023, and a progressive activist whose energy is attracting attention.

When will we know the results?

The area is scheduled very quickly in 2024. If this pattern continues, 99% of results should be accounted for by or near midnight on the East Coast. You can track results in real time here.

If one candidate gets a clear, wide margin, the AP can call the race before most people in the country go to sleep. If it is close, it may take much longer.