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Key takeaways
- Hiring by U.S. employers has slowed to a crawl, according to recent data from Vanguard.
- The rate of job creation is at its slowest sustained pace since 2009, when the United States was in recession.
- Vanguard’s report is one of the few privately generated data sources available in the absence of government reports delayed by the shutdown.
The last time job growth was as slow as it is now, Boom Boom Pow of the Black Eyed Peas was at the top of the charts, Bitcoin cost a quarter of a cent, and Donald Trump was known as a game show host.
Vanguard data found that the U.S. job growth rate was just 0.1% in seven of the first nine months of 2025 — an ominous sign, since the last time job growth was slow for an extended period was during the Great Recession in 2009. That’s less than a third of the recent peak job growth of 0.36% in 2022.
What does this mean for the economy
Vanguard’s data highlights the precarious balance in the labor market: job creation is slow, but there have not been any waves of mass layoffs. Fed officials see the labor market as increasingly fragile, and are expected to cut interest rates to support job growth and prevent a sharp increase in unemployment.
Vanguard’s data is one of the few reports on the labor market generated by private companies, which are still being published in the absence of official figures from the government that have been delayed by the ongoing lockdown.
Vanguard’s data reinforces recent findings that point to a “low-employment, low-employment” labor market in an unstable equilibrium. Many employers remain reluctant to expand or shrink their workforces as they face the White House’s economic policies, especially tariffs and immigration crackdowns, according to recent polls.
The slow rate of job creation is bad news for anyone currently looking for work, but the job market is not yet in crisis. Unlike the early 2000s, people who currently have jobs can count on relatively stable jobs, according to Vanguard.
“Hiring has slowed, but low layoff rates and strong income growth suggest the labor market remains strong for currently employed workers,” the company said in a blog post.
⚡ What do you think?
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