What executives are anticipating for the holiday season

There are only two months to go until Christmas Eve, and retailers are meeting more cautious shoppers with previous offers.

Most retailers won’t report third-quarter results or updated holiday forecasts until just before Thanksgiving, which is largely considered the sector’s most important week of the year. By then, many shoppers will have already begun checking off their holiday shopping lists.

Amazon October’s Prime Day sales event and competitors’ previous Black Friday deals take up a portion of the holiday wallet share. The unofficial start of the holiday shopping season comes as executives signal a bifurcation in consumer spending, as lower-income consumers feel pressure on their budgets, and as government shutdowns and tariff costs threaten purchasing power.

Cole Retailers are among those chasing holiday shopping early in hopes of boosting their distance totals.

“We want to make sure we’re driving that early consideration knowing that they’re shopping early,” Christy Raymond, Kohl’s chief marketing officer, said at a media event earlier this month.

The off-mall department store will begin its holiday marketing campaign next week, a week earlier than last year when it waited until after the election. In the coming days, the rest of the Eid merchandise that is not already displayed in stores will be published.

A key part of Kohl’s holiday strategy is not just attracting shoppers early, but often.

During the most recent holiday season, between November and January, shoppers made “15-plus trips” on average to stores across the industry, but they checked out smaller baskets, Raymond said. These findings were based on a survey Kohl’s conducted with an outside research firm.

“[Consumers are] “They put in the work to get what they want at the price they want to pay,” she said.

while Sports and Outdoors Academy Chief executive Steve Lawrence agreed that shoppers are savvy when it comes to keeping an eye on prices, and said he expects customers to “bundle their spending around key shopping moments in the calendar where they know they can get the best deals”.

Both Kohl’s and Academy Sports cater largely to middle-income shoppers. However, Lawrence said consumers are paying close attention to discount events.

“If we do the same promotion this year as we did last year, there will be a higher acceptance rate for it,” he said. “I think that’s a sign that customers are really smart, and that they’re figuring out the right time to shop.”

Although promotions are part of the playbook every holiday season, Academy Sports will adjust how it runs discounts this year in light of increased engagement with deals, Lawrence said.

“If we did a 10-day promotion last year, I would probably only do it for 4 days over Thanksgiving weekend,” he said. “Maybe instead of promoting an entire brand, maybe just the key categories within that brand will be promoted, right? Or maybe in some cases, they might be promoting at a slightly lower discount.”

Raymond of Kohl’s said the retailer is seeing shoppers looking for lower-priced options and expects that to continue through the holiday season.

“Customers may have been buying a premium brand, but we see them moving toward private labels,” she said. “We think we’re actually in a great position to take advantage of that.”

A private label is one that is manufactured and sold by only one retailer, allowing for greater control over design and, more importantly, cost. That can mean lower prices for shoppers and higher profit margins for the retailer than for a national brand.

While Kohl’s doesn’t disclose the share of its own-brand sales, chief merchandising officer Nick Jones said it’s not as high as it once was, adding that there’s an opportunity to boost that share this holiday season, especially for shoppers trying to expand their wallets.

The company said that about 23% of the sports academy’s business is private label.

“In many cases, [our private label] “It’s our best expression of value,” Lawrence said. “Our goal is to be at or better than the best price on a given day.”

However, innovation should continue to inspire sales, Lawrence said.

The retail industry has repeatedly described its customers in recent quarters as “choosy,” to indicate thoughtful spending, but also “resilient.” And executives continue to use those descriptions — or synonyms — for the upcoming holiday season.

“I definitely think that with inflation in certain categories, it puts some pressure on purchasing power,” Lawrence said. “But you know, what we’ve also seen is that customers are very resilient. They’re coming out during key shopping periods. They’re coming for Mother’s Day, Father’s Day, back to school. We expect they’ll come again for the holiday.”

Dick’s sporting goods CEO Ed Stack told CNBC this week that he thinks the consumer is “a little nervous” this season, but is “cautiously optimistic.”

“If you’re going to provide value to the consumer, and they can see that, feel that value — and I’m not talking about that from a price standpoint, it can be innovative … they’ll come and they’ll buy,” Stack said.

Executives at all three retailers agree that holiday inventory positions will be normal, despite uncertainty over tariffs that many fear will impact order volumes. None of the three were anticipating a shortage of goods.

“I don’t think so [inventory availability] “It will be different than it has been in the past,” Stack said. “That really exciting item that everyone wants? It’s probably going to be in short supply, like it is every year.”