A fact-checked guide to Trump’s talking points and falsehoods at midterm rallies

This article originally appeared on PolitiFact.

President Donald Trump is hitting the campaign trail to support Republican candidates in toss-up races that will determine which party controls Congress for the final two years of his presidency.

PolitiFact listens to Trump’s public remarks every day. Although there is always room for surprising new lines, he tends to repeat boasts about his achievements and attacks on Democrats.

Here’s a list of more than two dozen go-to Trump statements and how they square for accuracy, drawing from his Republican National Convention midterm speech, subsequent speeches and interviews, and his Sept. 16 North Carolina rally.

Jump to a section for our analysis of his claims on affordability, taxes and tariffs, artificial intelligence, immigration, military activities and the Iran war, energy and gas prices, voting and elections, crime, the White House ballroom, campaign promises and democratic socialism.

Affordability, taxes and tariffs

We have “$22 trillion coming into this country” in foreign investment — midterm convention speech

False.

The number Trump cites is almost double the $11.2 trillion listed on the White House’s website. The website’s tally should be viewed with caution. It includes aspirational, multi-year goals for sprawling projects on AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, quantum computing, biotechnology and manufacturing. Some examples involve future purchases or sales of products, rather than capital investments. Some listed pledges from countries in the Middle East aren’t plausible when compared to those countries’ gross domestic product, such as the United Arab Emirates pledging an amount equal to three years of the country’s entire economic output.

Americans’ “401ks are up about $46,000.” — remarks in Ireland

Mostly False.

The stock market has notched notable increases during Trump’s second term, but a $46,000 rise is not supported.

Fidelity Investments data shows that between Dec. 31, 2024, and March 31, 2026, the average increase in 401(k) balances was $9,454. Fidelity hasn’t updated its data since March, but the S&P 500, a broad market gauge, was up 20% between the end of March and mid-September, and if that jump is fully applied to the figure, it would increase the value to only about $11,300.

“More Americans are working today by far than ever before.” — speech to the United Nations General Assembly

Half True.

Employment in August was at a record high of more than 159 million workers — largely driven by population growth.

Two other statistics for working people aren’t at record levels. The labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio for workers ages 25 to 54 are relatively high by historical standards, but they’ve fallen slightly on Trump’s watch. Both metrics were higher during the latter part of Biden’s term.

“The prices are coming down, not only of food but just about everything else.” — in Oval Office remarks

Mostly False.

Through August, overall, prices increased by about 4.7% since Trump began his second term, and groceries have risen by about 3.4%. By mid-September, gasoline was up 41% from January 2025, when Trump began his second term, a spike driven by the Iran war. Fuel oil and natural gas have risen as well. Electricity was up by more than 8%.

READ MORE: Most Americans blame Trump for high prices as his economic approval hits new low, AP-NORC poll shows

Coffee, ground beef and chicken breast were also up during this period. Car prices, eggs, bacon and bread prices were down.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is the “largest tax cut in American history.” — remarks in Ireland

Mostly False.

When factoring in the bill’s extension of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, the tax savings from Trump’s 2025 law rank third among tax cut laws since 1980, following bills signed in 1981 by Reagan in 1981 and in 2012 by Obama.

Trump’s 2025 legislation means “no tax” on tips, overtime and Social Security. — remarks in Ireland

There’s a bit more to know about the bill’s tax breaks for tipped workers, workers receiving overtime and older Americans. For one, the breaks expire in 2028, unless Congress extends them.

• Tips: The law gives most workers a tax break on some tipped income. Households earning less than $150,000 (for a single filer) or $300,000 (for joint filers) would receive tips tax-free; above those levels, the tax reduction would be partial.
• Overtime: The law covers people who work overtime under the Fair Labor Standards Act, which requires time-and-a-half pay for weekly hours worked over 40. The break does not apply to overtime that is not required under the law, such as overtime paid under more stringent state laws. In addition, the law makes tax-free the incremental increase in pay from working overtime — the “and a half” portion — so it won’t eliminate taxation on all the money people receive from working overtime.
• Social Security: The bill falls short of a full repeal of Social Security taxation. The bill gives an additional $6,000 tax deduction to people ages 65 and older. This does not mean all Social Security beneficiaries receive a tax cut (because some of them are under 65). Some people get the tax break without receiving Social Security (if they are over 65 and not collecting benefits yet). These deductions come on top of existing tax deductions for Americans over 65 years old — $2,000 if married or $1,600 if unmarried and not a surviving spouse.

The stock market is setting “record after record.” — remarks in Ireland

The stock market has hit record highs in many of the months of Trump’s second term, most recently in August. But that’s not unusual — most presidents have also experienced record highs on their watch. The stock market goes up and down, so those records are often followed by downticks, which happened after the mid-August peak.

“Tariffs have made us rich.” — rally in Gastonia, North Carolina

That’s exaggerated. The federal government collected almost $363 billion in tariff duties between January 2025 and April 2026, according to a Tax Foundation federal data analysis. Much of that is being refunded to American companies because the Supreme Court struck down tariffs Trump imposed using the main law he used as justification. Those refunds are going to companies, not consumers.

“We lifted 1.5 million people out of poverty last year.” — rally in Gastonia, North Carolina

This is accurate, but needs context. The Census Bureau’s annual poverty report, released in mid September, found 1.5 million fewer people who fell short of the minimum poverty threshold in 2025 than in 2024. The less positive news is that a related statistic — the supplemental poverty measure — showed no significant drop from 2024 to 2025. Some analysts consider the supplemental poverty measure a better metric because it includes such factors as regional cost of living, meaning it more fully reflects the affordability challenges of living in expensive places like California or New York.

“We’re gonna get you $5,000, so that’s it. Very simple.” — rally in Gastonia, North Carolina

Trump said in August that he would give that payment to every adult citizen in the U.S. if Republicans maintain control of the House and Senate in November’s elections. It faces enormous obstacles. It would cost $1.2 trillion, which is larger than what the U.S. pays every year to cover Medicare, interest on the debt or national defense. It would add to the nation’s $40 trillion debt and fuel inflation. And it would need approval by Congress, which controls the nation’s pocketbook, per the Constitution.

Trump made a similar unfulfilled vow before about tariff payouts.

Artificial intelligence

“We’re leading China in AI.”  — press gaggle at the Irish Open

Half True.

The U.S. has a lead over China in model capability, but key AI industry leaders and experts have said China is only a few months behind. U.S. models have become even more powerful, leading to multiple safety breaches, and AI leaders have called for a slowdown. The gap between the U.S. and China could shrink if development proceeds more slowly in the U.S. but China continues apace.

Immigration

“We had 25 million people come in through the southern border over the last administration.” — address in Ireland

False.

The number of immigrants living illegally in the U.S. increased under Biden’s administration, but 25 million is far higher than immigration researchers’ estimates.

The number of immigrants in the U.S. illegally during Biden’s tenure ranged from 11 million to 12 million people across various research groups, despite differences in methodologies. The highest estimate PolitiFact found was 16.8 million.

After Trump took office, “zero people came in.” — address in Ireland

This is accurate but needs some context. Illegal border crossings are at historic lows, but people are still trying to cross. U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported there were 8,870 apprehensions on the southwest border in August.

The Trump administration says it is no longer releasing people apprehended at the border into the U.S., and that each person is being detained or removed.

Voting and elections

“We won the presidency three times.” — midterm convention speech

Pants on Fire!

He won in 2016 and 2024. In 2020, Biden won 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. States certified the results, and Congress accepted the results showing that Biden won.

Democrats “voted against voter ID.”  — midterm convention speech

This omits context. Thirty-six states already request or require voters to show some form of ID at the polls. The remaining 14 states and Washington, D.C., require no identification, but they use other methods to verify voter identity, such as asking for a home address or birth date.

The U.S. Senate on Aug. 8 voted against a bill to require voters to present a government-issued photo ID at the polls and set ID rules to submit a mail ballot. Any legislation that creates new hurdles to vote by mail would likely lead to an increase in rejected mail ballots.

Democrats “voted against proof of citizenship.”  — midterm convention speech

That’s misleading. House Republicans Sept. 1 passed a nonbinding resolution that called for passing the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, which would require documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections. Most House Democrats opposed the resolution. But noncitizen voting in federal elections is already illegal.

Crime

“We achieved the largest drop in violent crime ever recorded in the history of our country, with the murder rate falling to the lowest level in 125 years.”  — midterm convention speech

Half True.

The 2024 violent crime rate was the lowest since 1969, 55 years ago, and the 35% reduction is one of the largest annual declines in history, topped by a few declines in the 1990s that were larger, according to the Council on Criminal Justice.

Homicide rates fell sharply in 2025, reaching the lowest level in decades, according to the FBI’s 2025 data. However, there is no reliable way to compare today’s homicide rates with those from 125 years ago.

White House ballroom

“I build a ballroom. No money, no tax.” — midterm convention speech

That’s inaccurate. The ballroom and East Wing renovation is estimated to cost $600 million, with half of the money coming from taxpayers, The Washington Post reported in June.

Iran war and military activity

“We took out the nuclear capacity” of Iran. — rally in Gastonia, North Carolina

The 2025 U.S. military strikes likely set back Iran’s nuclear program but did not eliminate it, and this year’s war has not further weakened Iran’s nuclear capabilities, military and nuclear experts said. The U.S. has not secured Iran’s highly enriched uranium, and it’s unclear whether any damage has been done to the machinery used to enrich more uranium.

In Iran, “their Navy’s gone. Their Air Force is gone.” — rally in Gastonia, North Carolina

This is exaggerated. As a result of the United States’ military attacks, “the Iranians have lost all of their navy, most of their air defenses and ballistic missile production capability, and much of their air force and nuclear program,” said Mark F. Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a national security think tank. “However, Iran still has a significant number of missiles, and its army is untouched.”

Iranian strikes have damaged or destroyed “hundreds of buildings and structures at U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan during the conflict,” as well as dozens of U.S. aircraft, the Defense Department’s inspector general reported. In addition, Iran hit multiple U.S. diplomatic facilities in the region. On Sept. 18, Iran said it struck a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

“The United States has carried out dozens of strikes on cartel drug boats, destroying 97 percent of the drugs coming into the ocean and sea.”  — address to the United Nations General Assembly

False.

Air and marine drug seizures have dropped since the strikes began in September 2025, but the administration hasn’t provided a clear link. The Coast Guard, which oversees most drug seizures on water, recorded a 200% increase in seizures in fiscal year 2025 compared with other annual averages.

Seizures show how many drugs are stopped from entering the U.S., not how many drugs are being sent to the U.S. or how many make it in. It’s a black market, making the number unknowable, according to drug experts.

“Each one of those boats can kill 25,000 people, on average 25,000 people.” — remarks in Ireland

Pants on Fire!

Trump said boats the U.S. military struck off the coast of Venezuela were carrying drugs heading to the U.S. However, Venezuela plays a minor role in trafficking drugs that reach the U.S. The administration has provided no evidence about the type or quantity of drugs it says were on the boats, making it impossible to know how many lethal doses could have been destroyed.

Energy and gas prices

“And you watch what happens to your oil, to your gasoline, pew, it’s gonna come down very quickly. I had it down to the lowest level in years.” — rally in Gastonia, North Carolina

The lowest weekly average price per gallon under Trump was $1.87 in his first term — but that was at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, when commuting and travel all but shut down and gasoline demand was at an unusual low, causing prices to tumble.

When Trump took office in January 2025, the average price was $3.23 a gallon. By late September, the average price was $4.61 a gallon.

“We’ve unleashed our vast energy resources to make America the number one supplier of oil and natural gas on earth.” — remarks in Ireland

This needs context. The U.S. is the No. 1 producer of oil and natural gas. But this isn’t new, and it predates Trump. In 2015 we found that the U.S. had been the world’s largest oil producer since 2012, and the largest natural gas producer for years.

Our country is producing more oil and gas “than Russia and Saudi Arabia combined.” — midterm convention speech

Mostly True.

He’s right when measuring the combination of crude oil and related liquids. However, the United States’ lead over Russia and Saudi Arabia is built on the other liquids, not crude oil; together, Russian and Saudi Arabian production of crude oil alone exceeds that of the U.S. — and crude oil is at the center of most U.S. discussions about energy production and affordability.

Campaign promises

“I’ve delivered on every single promise I made” — rally in Gastonia, North Carolina

Not according to PolitiFact’s MAGA-Meter, which tracks his progress on 2024 campaign promises. He has kept 20% of his promises, while 41% are In the Works. Many are Stalled and he broke a few promises, including concluding the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours and ending birthright citizenship. During his first term, our Trump-O-Meter found that he broke about half his promises, including to repeal Obamacare.

Democratic socialism

Democratic socialists “want to grant full amnesty and voting rights to all illegal aliens, regardless of whether they were criminals, murderers.” — midterm convention speech

That’s misleading. The Democratic Socialists of America’s website says the organization supports extending “full voting rights to all permanent U.S. residents and restore the right to vote for incarcerated people and people with criminal convictions.” Only U.S. citizens are allowed to vote in federal elections and the organization doesn’t advocate otherwise.

States set laws on whether people with felony convictions can vote and over the past decade the trend has been toward allowing people to regain their voting rights. Vermont and Maine allow prisoners to vote.

“They call themselves Democrat socialists, but actually they’re communists.”  — midterm convention speech

No, these ideologies are not the same. The Democratic Socialists of America platform “is certainly radical in its call for reforms, but it is not revolutionary in the sense of a communist takeover of the means of production and the abolition of capitalism,” Ted Henken, a Baruch College professor and Cuba expert, told PolitiFact in July.

A handful of democratic socialist-aligned candidates won June congressional primaries in New York, Colorado and Pennsylvania. Florida Democratic Senate nominee Angie Nixon signed the DSA platform in June; she said she does not share all positions on defunding the police and abolishing prisons.