A new AP-NORC poll shows that Trump’s popularity has declined among Hispanics since January

President Donald Trump’s popularity has declined among Hispanic adults since the beginning of the year, a potential warning sign from a key constituency that helped secure his 2024 election victory, a new AP-NORC poll shows.

An October poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 25% of Hispanic adults had a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of Trump, down from 44% in an AP-NORC poll conducted before the Republican took office for a second time. The percentage of Hispanic adults who say the country is headed in the wrong direction has also risen slightly over the past few months, from 63% in March to 73% now.

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This shift could spell trouble for Republicans looking to consolidate their support for this group in the upcoming election. Many Hispanic voters were motivated by economic concerns in last year’s election, and the new poll shows that despite Trump’s promises of economic revitalization, Hispanic adults still feel higher financial stress than Americans overall. Hispanic voters made up 10% of the electorate in 2024, according to AP VoteCast, an interview survey of registered voters, and the number of eligible Hispanic voters has been growing rapidly in recent decades.

Alejandro Ochoa, 30, is a warehouse worker in Adelanto, California. He identifies as a Republican and voted for Trump last year, but is now unhappy with the president. He criticized some of Trump’s budget cuts, adding that the cost of groceries is too high and that buying a home is still out of reach for him.

“It was basically based on nostalgia, ‘Remember before COVID? Things weren’t that expensive,'” Ochoa said. “But now it’s like, well, you’re in the office. I’m still dealing with the shit at the grocery store. And I’m still spending a crazy amount of money. I’m trying to cut corners where I can, but this bill is still crazy expensive.”

Declining approval of the economy and immigration

Hispanic voters have shifted toward Trump in the latest election, though a majority still supports Democrat Kamala Harris: 43% of Hispanic voters voted for Trump nationally, according to AP VoteCast, up from 35% in the 2020 presidential election, which he lost to Democrat Joe Biden.

But the poll now shows that Hispanic adults are slightly less likely to approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and immigration — two issues that were major strengths for him in last year’s presidential campaign — and their views of his overall presidential performance have declined slightly as well.

In March, 41% of Hispanic adults approved of the way Trump was handling his job as president, but that percentage has now dropped to 27%.

Over the past few months, Hispanic communities have also been the target of the president’s hard-line immigration tactics. Hispanic adults’ approval of his handling of immigration has declined slightly since March, the poll showed.

Some believe that the two issues are related. Trump’s attacks on immigration have affected low-wage and high-skilled workers alike, at a time when the economy is already uncertain due to his erratic trade policies.

Phil Echandi, of Winter Haven, Florida, is a behavioral specialist who identifies as a Democrat but sometimes votes for Republican candidates. He said he appreciated Trump’s views on transgender issues, including transgender women’s access to restrooms.

But he is concerned that Trump’s immigration policies are leaving too many people living in fear, with negative effects on the economy.

“A lot of people depend on migrants to do work in certain areas,” Echandi said. “When that is affected, all prices go up. Our food costs are higher because of the costs of getting people to do the work.”

The survey found particularly high levels of financial stress among Hispanic adults, compared to the rest of the country. More Hispanics say the cost of groceries, housing, health care and the amount of money they make are “major” sources of stress, compared to American adults overall.

The advantage among Hispanic Republicans drops slightly

Even views of Trump have soured a bit among Hispanic Republicans.

In the latest poll, 66% of Hispanic Republicans said they had a “very” or “somewhat” favorable view of Trump. That’s a slight shift from Trump’s position in an AP-NORC poll from September 2024, when 83% of Hispanic Republicans viewed him at least “somewhat” favorably. About 8 in 10 white Republicans had a favorable view of Trump in the new poll, which was unchanged from the previous year.

In another potentially troubling sign for the president, young Hispanic men and Hispanic men — two groups that swung significantly toward him in last year’s election — also view him more negatively.

The new poll showed that about two-thirds of Hispanic adults under 45 and Hispanic men now view Trump unfavorably. That’s up slightly from September 2024, when about half in both groups had a negative opinion of him.

Other concerns about Trump’s chaotic second term emerged in interviews.

Teresa Covarrubias, a 65-year-old retired teacher from Los Angeles, feels things are going in the wrong direction and said she is troubled by how some of Trump’s actions have challenged norms and may impact social safety net programs.

“My main concern is the disregard for the constitution and the law, and then the level of patronage as well,” said Covarrubias, an independent voter. “The people at the top are just bluffing and taking, and then there are the rest of us.”

Hispanic adults are more likely to prioritize immigration

There are signs in the poll that Trump’s tough approach on immigration may alienate some Hispanic adults. Over the past few months, the president has doubled down on his pledge for mass deportations, with crackdowns escalating in Latino neighborhoods in cities including Chicago.

The survey found that Hispanic adults, in general, are more likely to say immigration is an important issue to them personally. About two-thirds of Hispanic adults prioritize immigration, compared with about 6 in 10 white adults and about half of black adults.

Although their views on immigration enforcement are not uniform, Hispanic adults are much less likely than U.S. adults overall to favor deportation of all immigrants living in the United States illegally. The new poll found that about a quarter of Hispanic adults support the policy, while about half oppose and the rest have no opinion. Among US adults overall, about 4 in 10 support deporting all immigrants in the US illegally, while 34% oppose, and about 2 in 10 have no opinion.

Rick Alvarado, 63, a Republican who lives in San Diego, says he still supports Trump and praised his measures to cut public spending. Alvarado, a real estate manager, is behind Trump’s anti-immigration campaign in cities including Los Angeles and Chicago, saying he believes some immigrants are involved in organized crime.

But he added that he would like to see a solution for those without criminal records to obtain legal residency status.

“Productive people have to have a way to stay here one way or another,” Alvarado said.

The AP-NORC poll of 1,289 adults was conducted Oct. 9-13, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The margin of sampling error for Hispanic adults overall is plus or minus 6.9 percentage points.