A new poll reveals signs of hope for Democrats and red flags for Republicans

Amna Nawaz:

With the midterm elections now less than a year away, a new poll from PBS News, NPR and Marist has signs of hope for Democrats and some red flags for Republicans.

So what resonates with voters?

NPR’s senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here to crunch the numbers.

It’s good to see you.

Domenico Montanaro, political editor, NPR:

Hey. It’s good to see you.

Amna Nawaz:

Let’s jump.

Democrats scored some big election victories in New Jersey, New York City, and Virginia two weeks ago. They seem to have an advantage. The midterm elections are still a long way off. But what does the poll show?

Domenico Montanaro:

And in a lot of places around the country, really up and down the ballot. And I think what this poll shows is that Democrats have a huge advantage right now.

The real problem is because of affordability. But what the poll does show is that Democrats, by a margin of 55 to 41, say they would pick a Democrat in their district if the midterm elections were held today. Now, why is this important? It’s a plus-14 advantage in what’s known as congressional balloting.

When you have this much lead volume, it is a real indicator of a potential wave. I mean, if you look at 2022, for example, Democrats only averaged between zero and four points. They lost nine seats. In 2018, Democrats had a lead of six to 12 points in our poll. They clearly won a huge advantage with 40 seats.

Now, most people don’t expect that we’ll see a wave of this kind next year, but right now we start with the Democrats with a big advantage. A large part of this is due to the independents and how they have slipped away. I mean, by a 61-28 percent margin, independents say they’ll pick a Democrat.

Amna Nawaz:

amazing.

Domenico Montanaro:

These are major red flags and warning signs for the Republican Party right now.

Amna Nawaz:

We know a lot can happen in the next year, but that also includes everything that happens on the redistricting front. We have seen efforts by President Trump and Republicans, and counter efforts by Democrats in California. This is all tied up in the courts now. But does any of this make Democratic electoral superiority moot?

Domenico Montanaro:

You know, it depends on how this ends. But, frankly, we’ve seen some evidence in the last week or so that this could backfire on Republicans.

Trump wanted five seats from Texas. A court said this week that Texas maps should go back to the drawing board. Now, in the end, they may get what they want, but they also depend a lot on Latinos in South Texas who have moved toward Donald Trump. And what we’re seeing in our polls and in the election is that Latinos have really turned away from Donald Trump and the Republicans.

They moved because of affordability. And what we’re hearing from a lot of these voters is that they don’t feel like Trump has done enough to address cost cutting and they’re upset with the way he’s handled deportations in this country, and they feel like they’re OK with deporting criminals, but they’re not OK with deporting people in their communities the way they see it being done.

And as we talked about, prices are the real problem, right? I mean, when you look at the issues within our survey, 57 percent say lowering prices should be management’s top priority. Nothing else comes close. You can see immigration up to 16% in second place, and even a significant number of Republicans there say that lowering prices should trump Trump’s top priority.

Amna Nawaz:

At the same time, if you look at the Republican Party, we’ve seen some disagreements. We were covering Marjorie Taylor Greene’s breakup with the president, where he called her a traitor.

But how do Americans view the president’s performance now?

Domenico Montanaro:

Yeah, I think that’s a big reason why there’s an opportunity for other Republicans to show some independence. I think they’ll be watching what happens with Marjorie Taylor Greene to see if she suffers any political consequences, as Trump says she will.

If she doesn’t, I wonder what that will mean as Trump continues to look further and further away like a lame duck who is on the wrong side of these issues. In the poll here, only 39% said they approved of the work Trump is doing. And when you look at the numbers, only 24% of freelancers approve of the work he does.

Now, the other number is, as you can see, nine out of 10 Republicans are still sticking with the president. So it continues to put Republican candidates at a disadvantage, because we see that when Trump isn’t on the ballot, the MAGA Republican voter base doesn’t necessarily show up. We heard from a lot of Republican voters in this poll who said they support Trump, but don’t necessarily vote for Republican candidates.

That’s a real problem for them because they need to be able to show some independence from Trump so they can say — to appeal to these crossover, independent voters, but they can’t alienate the base.

Amna Nawaz:

Can I quickly ask you about something else we saw here?

Domenico Montanaro:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

Some of the biggest frustrations among American voters are about political institutions and beyond. What do you take from that?

Domenico Montanaro:

People don’t like anything.

(He laughed)

Domenico Montanaro:

If you look at what they think about trust in institutions, you’ll find pretty bad numbers here for almost everyone, including us in the media, by the way. Only 25% agree with what we do.

Amna Nawaz:

Full results are, of course, always available online.

Domenico Montanaro, NPR, always good to see you. Thank you.

Domenico Montanaro:

Thank you.