After targeting both parties, this Republican faces a crucial decision

WASHINGTON (AP) — Republican Rep. Kevin Kelly has seen the political ground shift beneath him in the past year, as the boundaries of his California district were turned upside down by the nation’s partisan redistricting war.

He watches: How conservatives work to find solutions amid intense political polarization

But Kelly made it clear he was not going away quietly. Or to hear him say, “I will never leave.”

This is the kind of challenge that characterized Kelly’s last term in Washington. Some days, he attacks Democrats and continues his long-standing hostility toward California Gov. Gavin Newsom and political endeavors in his home state, including efforts to build high-speed rail. On other days, he was dissing President Donald Trump on his tariffs and criticizing House Speaker Mike Johnson’s leadership.

The dual approach to re-election comes as the former state legislator tries to claw his way to a third term in the House after watching his current district split into six parts, leaving

He has few paths to stay in office. He plans to announce a decision on his re-election plans on Monday.

Kelly’s predicament is an example of how the redistricting war that began in Texas, at Trump’s behest, and sparked a swift counteraction from Democrats in California, has left some incumbents scrambling to save their political careers.

Read more: Why Texas’ redistricting plan isn’t a sure bet

Kelly said on social media that he has narrowed his re-election options to two. One is to face fellow Republican Tom McClintock in the primary and possibly again in the fall. California uses a system in which the top two vote-getters in the primary, regardless of party, move on to the general election. His other option would be to run in a Democratic-leaning district, hoping he can win despite the headwinds facing Republicans in the midterm elections.

“He is in real danger of not returning to Congress,” Republican strategist Rob Stutzman said. “Having said that, I think he has a better chance than most people under the circumstances. He’s a skilled politician. He works hard.”

How did he get here?

After Texas redrew its maps to create five more Republican-friendly districts, California responded in kind. Voters approved new congressional district boundaries that give Democrats a better chance of winning up to five additional seats.

Read more: The battle to redraw the maps of the US House of Representatives is spreading. This is where things are in Missouri and other states

Kelly isn’t the only California Republican facing a tougher path to reelection. Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim will face off in a new district. Representative Darrell Issa is expected to seek a 13th term in his current district, but he is now leaning toward the Democrats. Rep. David Valadao’s district in the Central Valley has become more Democratic.

Kelly has been candid about their plight. He authored a bill to prevent states from carrying out more than one congressional redistricting after each decennial census. But the bill remained weak, with only one co-sponsor. He has taken to criticizing Johnson for not doing more to avoid a redistricting war that has spilled over into Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and elsewhere.

“Why would the leader of this institution simply watch the institution collapse?” he asked. He said in a one-story speech.

Johnson said Kelly’s criticisms are “misguided” and that he has raised about $13 million to fight California’s redistricting efforts at the ballot box.

“Last cycle, I practically lived in California,” Johnson said. “I spent so many days campaigning in California, I thought Gavin Newsom was going to send me a tax bill. I’ll be there again because California is as important to us now as it has always been.”

The road ahead

Kelly said on social media that he would choose between the reliably Republican district served by McClintock and an open district focused on Sacramento County where Democrat Kamala Harris would have won the 2024 presidential election by about 8 percentage points.

“Over the coming weeks leading up to the March 4 filing deadline, I will be speaking with voters and people across the state about the best path forward, and I would love to hear from you,” he wrote. “…Thank you for all the encouragement in working through a set of challenges we never expected.”

His willingness to take on the GOP leadership and Trump could attract the independent voters he will need to succeed in the Democratic-leaning Sacramento area.

Read more: A Virginia judge blocks a Democratic referendum, dealing a blow to redistricting efforts for 4 seats in the US House of Representatives

Kelly was one of six Republicans who voted earlier this month to repeal Trump’s tariffs on Canada. Before that, he voted to override two of Trump’s objections. He also co-sponsored a bill to temporarily extend health care subsidies in the Affordable Care Act marketplace, though he ultimately voted against the clean, three-year extension sought by Democrats.

“He’s basically preparing himself to run as a Republican, independent of the speaker and the leadership, independent of the White House,” said Stutzman, the Republican strategist.

Stutzman added that some of Kelly’s actions also stem from real dissatisfaction with Republican leaders over the redistricting war.
“They started fighting and then left these guys bleeding on the battlefield,” Stutzman said.

Stutzman said the Sacramento-area district is an interesting place for Kelly because part of his political brand is being an opponent of Newsom, and Newsom has not done as well there as he has generally in the state.

“He’s going to have a good fight for this seat, if that’s what he does,” Stutzman said.

Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell said he doubted the possibility of Republicans winning the seat in an election that would likely be a referendum on Trump.
“It’s a more swing seat than Santa Monica or San Francisco, but it’s not a seat I think a Republican wins, especially in a blue wave election,” said Mitchell, the political data expert.

Republican versus Republican

Mitchell believes that Kelly’s best chance to return to Congress is to oust McClintock, who has served nine terms in the House of Representatives. And before that, 22 years as a California state legislator. He may be the most conservative member of the California delegation.

“Desperate people do desperate things, but it’s a free country and he’s free to run wherever he wants,” McClintock said of Kelly’s potential challenge.

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The Club for Growth Political Action Committee, a powerhouse in GOP primaries that often puts its vast resources behind the most fiscally conservative Republican candidate, endorsed McClintock last week. Trump also gave McClintock his “full and complete endorsement.”

Such endorsements will be key for McClintock. He entered this year at a financial disadvantage compared to Kelly. Federal Election Commission records show McClintock had less than $100,000 in cash at the end of December; Kelly had more than $2 million.

Kelly’s campaign used some of those resources earlier this month by spending more than $175,000 on a political ad featuring him as an opponent of Newsom. “That’s why President Trump said no one fought Gavin Newsom harder than Kevin,” says one narrator.

Ad-Impact, which tracks political ad spending, said most of the money was directed to the Fresno and Visalia media markets. Mitchell says the lack of spending in Sacramento could be a sign that Kelly is thinking.

“I should expect to see him in things in this part of the district or Republicans are excited about Kelly in this part of the districts. He’s like crickets,” Mitchell said.

Kelly said the announcements do not necessarily mean a decision has been made. He said he talks to current voters as well as those he might serve in the future, “to see which ones are best.”