Americans are already shopping during the holidays. Will they find the deals they’re hoping for?

Americans are not expected to cut their vacation budgets this year. But they may spend more time looking for deals, and find smaller deals than they had hoped.

Analysts said consumers are expected to approach the year-end shopping season with the same thrifting spirit they have adopted through most of 2025, as they look to deal with price increases fueled by tariffs. Investopedia. Surveys show that shoppers keen to save have already started scanning deals long before Black Friday, but many are holding off on buying.

New National Retail Federation research shows what others have already discovered: Americans plan to shop at resale markets, look for deals, and cut back on some purchases. On average, Americans plan to spend about 1.3% less on gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items during November and December compared to the previous year, the NRF reported.

“It’s definitely going to be a more unusual holiday season, at least from a consumer and brand perspective,” said Andrew Weber, who studies U.S. transactions on Amazon for PMG, a marketing and digital services firm. “Purchasing behavior may be a little different from what you expect.”

Many households have less disposable income, Oxford Economics said, adding that “unusually stringent lending standards” may limit the extent to which younger and lower-income consumers can rely on their credit cards. Any decline among these consumers will appear small compared to the growth in spending among affluent consumers, Oxford said.

Parents expect to spend an average of $30 more on gifts in November and December compared to the previous year, the NRF said. Overall, adults plan to spend about $628, down $13 year over year.

Analysts say total spending is likely to grow: Wells Fargo expects a 3.5% to 4% year-over-year increase in retail spending, excluding auto, gas, restaurant and bar bills. Wells Fargo said that would be the slowest growth rate in seven years, just shy of historical standards.

Consumers have been thinking about gifts for weeks, with half of them purchasing a gift before October, according to a Bank of America survey. Many want to spread out spending and reduce last-minute stress, and most expect to finish shopping in December, the NRF said.

Weber said retailers and brands realize that people are taking a more deliberate approach, and generally respond by offering promotions for longer periods. But discounts may be less important as companies balance tariffs and other expenses. The average discount during Amazon ( AMZN ) sales earlier this month was about 24%, compared to 28% in 2024, Waber said.

“Price competitiveness is very important,” he said. “If I can’t offer a deeper discount, but I can offer a very good discount for a much longer period of time, I’m more likely to like to attract consumers when they’re ready to buy.”