Americans’ pessimistic economic sentiment has not stopped “aggressive” spending.

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Key takeaways

  • The National Retail Federation estimates core retail sales rose 0.6% month-over-month in October; Her research may be even more important now that the closed federal government does not release economic data.
  • Despite the bad sentiment about the economy, Americans continue to shop and are expected to spend $1 trillion this holiday season, the NRF said.

Americans spend amid hardship.

Retail spending, excluding restaurants, bars, gas stations and auto-related bills, grew 0.6% month over month in October, reversing a 0.5% decline in September, the National Retail Federation said. The trade group’s monthly analysis comes as consumer sentiment is at historic lows and analysts are doing their best to assess the economy without data from the now-shuttered federal government. (The Census Bureau is scheduled to release retail numbers for October on Friday.)

People are keeping up with spending, despite feeling less secure, a behavioral phenomenon that emerged during the pandemic and has continued since, the NRF said in a conference call last week. “Consumers have the ability to do two things at once: They express very low sentiment, but they nonetheless move the economy forward through spending and active engagement in commerce,” NRF President Matthew Shay said on the call.

Americans give current economic conditions the harshest rating ever, according to a 73-year-old survey conducted by the University of Michigan. Concern is rising as inflation rises, layoffs increase, and seasonal hiring is on track for a 15-year low, the NRF said in a conference call last week.

Why does this news matter to you?

Weakness among low-income consumers may not show up in broad economic data. Many low-income households will still prioritize holiday spending, but they may fall further in other areas.

Some companies remain optimistic about the coming months. Bark (BARK), which sells dog food, toys and supplies, said on a conference call Monday that its advent calendar has already been sold out at Costco (COST), according to a transcript provided by AlphaSense. Ralph Lauren (RL) raised its revenue forecast for the full fiscal year when announcing its latest quarterly results last week.

In an era when weak sentiment has little impact on sales, the NRF expects retail spending to grow year-over-year in November and December, and exceed $1 trillion this holiday season. Many are taking advantage of the strong stock market, while those struggling may eat out less or make other changes to maintain traditions such as exchanging gifts or sharing a large meal, the group said.

“If consumers have to pay more for goods, they will make savings elsewhere,” Mark Matthews, NRF’s chief economist, said on the call. “We expect them to continue to prioritize spending on loved ones, and spending on family.”

Shopify (SHOP) expects revenue to grow in the mid-to-high 20 percent year-over-year range in the fourth quarter, the e-commerce software company said on a conference call last week.

“Consumer confidence for us is measured at checkout,” Shopify president Harley Finkelstein said, according to the transcript, later saying, “Shoppers keep buying. They keep coming back and demand remains really resilient.”

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