Amy Walter and Yasmine Wright talk about the lasting impact of the Iran war on midterm politics

William Brangham:

As President Trump touts his so-called deal with Iran, he is threatening to derail Congressional efforts to revamp the major spy force. One of his other opponents says they are being investigated by the Justice Department.

It’s politics on Monday. And The Cook Policy Report’s Amy Walter, along with NOTUS’ Amy Walter and Yasmin Wright, are here to explain it all. Tamara Keith is away today.

So nice to see you both. Hello.

Jasmine Wright, NOTUS:

Welcome.

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report:

Welcome.

William Brangham:

Yasmine, with respect to this Iran deal, we still don’t know all the details, the crucial things, about what’s happening with the Iranian nuclear material, and whether the Strait will actually be reopened. Will the United States really give hundreds of billions of dollars to the Iranians?

However, will the White House declare victory and hope the details work out later?

Jasmine Wright:

I think you see them starting that process now, William. You’ve seen J.D. Vance, Vice President, leading these negotiations. You’ve already seen him on CBS, ABC, CNN, and maybe by the end of the week, we’ll see him on PBS, coming out and setting the narrative on what the deal is before the script actually comes out, because you’re right.

We haven’t seen the text. We haven’t seen what this MOU will do to move us to the next phase of technical talks that US officials say will last for 60 days, where all those really tough details are worked out.

I’ve talked to experts who say these critical conversations will actually be the hard part, and that’s not what they got here. Now, when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, this is obviously something that the White House has focused on and talked about a lot.

They say it will open somewhere between Friday and two weeks from then. We may not have the full number of ships that have passed since then. But I think that was actually the number one thing they focused on. Yes, they’ve been talking about Iran’s nuclear ambition, but they need to open this strait in order to re–not just reactivate the base here, but get gas prices to where they need to be in November.

And so I think you’ll see a lot of focus on that. Once they open it, they can discover those other annoying little details.

Amy Walter:

Yes. Yes.

William Brangham:

namely…

Amy Walter:

Yeah, that sounds about right because the number one concern, if you’re up for re-election this year as a Republican, there was talk at one point about closing the strait over Labor Day, which means as we get into election season, we’re looking at $4, $5 gas prices. This is devastating

William Brangham:

Politically disastrous.

Amy Walter:

definitely. So, if you’re a Republican looking forward to an unpopular war and the possibility of higher gas prices in the election, the fact that the strait could open in two weeks or less is good news.

At the same time, this will not suddenly bring inflation back to where voters feel the cost of living has been addressed. And I think the challenge for Republicans throughout this election is that the president seems more concerned with his own agenda than the issues that the voters who sent him to Washington want him to focus on, which is the cost of living.

So Iran is not a topic that was brought up during the 2024 campaign. They didn’t see why we were there. And then the number of issues, some of which we’ll probably talk about tonight, but whether it’s going to host a UFC fight, whether it’s going to be a redesign of Washington, D.C., or the ballroom, et cetera, will still be part of the President’s focus going forward.

As long as he remains focused on things outside the scope of what ordinary voters want to see, reopening the Straits will not solve all the political problems Republicans face.

William Brangham:

right.

What we just saw today as well, Jasmine, is Gavin Newsom coming out and saying, I’m under investigation by the Department of Justice, which he argues is just a puppet of Donald Trump. How do you see that playing out?

Again, we must say that we have no idea what the nature of this investigation is, how legitimate it is, where it came from, and whether there are serious allegations behind it. How do you see that playing out?

Jasmine Wright:

Well, I think that’s what Amy said, which is that voters feel as though Trump is not focusing on their concerns.

And part of that was his retaliation campaign that the Justice Department ran, targeting people that the president believed were either responsible for some of the legal problems he’s had over the last few years or at least added to the environment, or people that he frankly didn’t like.

The president has been talking about fraud in California not only for years, but has really focused on it in the last two weeks since that primary. Now, of course, we don’t know any of the details, so we don’t know if these details are related at all.

But Gavin Newsom was a thorn in this president’s side, someone the president believed was a fraud, someone who should not be in elective office. The worst ruler in the world has said it, I think, many times.

This is clearly the moment in which Gavin Newsom is in the Justice Department’s spotlight, but the question is, who might come next?

Amy Walter:

Yes, there was a time when a politician wouldn’t take to social media to tell people they were being investigated by the Department of Justice.

William Brangham:

That’s right, the feds are after me, everyone.

Amy Walter:

I just wanted to let everyone know that I’m being investigated. This was something she didn’t do.

But in this day and age now, if you’re a Democrat being investigated by Trump’s Justice Department, it’s a badge of honor, in the same way that President Trump was able to rally his base, saying the Biden administration is after me.

So for Gavin Newsom, who happens to be there, maybe the president is coming up behind me because I’m running for president, so that’s another sign that Gavin Newsom is a potential 2028 candidate.

Jasmine Wright:

I believe this is the fourth person who has uploaded a video to Twitter/X saying he is under investigation.

So, I mean, obviously, social media teams now have to think about how to move forward.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

William Brangham:

It seems to be a badge of honor for Democrats, Amy says.

Amy Walter:

Yes. Yes.

William Brangham:

Jasmine Wright, Amy Walter, great to see you both together.

Amy Walter:

It’s good to see you. Thank you.

Jasmine Wright:

Thank you.