Bitcoin declines towards $100,000. Where does it go from here?

So much for “Uptober.”

Bitcoin is close to giving up all of its gains this year, as it has fallen since renewed trade tensions between the United States and China led to a reversal in the digital asset market. The world’s largest cryptocurrency (BTCUSD) has fallen about 7% since Monday, according to research platform Messari.

The decline in Bitcoin prices is reflected in the stock shares associated with it. Bitcoin Treasury Strategy (MSTR), cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN), and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) are down at least 5% in the past five days. At around $107,000, Bitcoin’s 14% year-to-date return is roughly in line with the S&P 500.

Trade concerns last week sparked a historic purge in the cryptocurrency market, upending Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative and severing its link to gold, whose recent rise to record levels has prompted US consumers to cash in. Gold, as Yardeni’s head of research, Ed Yardeni, wrote earlier this week, “is the new Bitcoin.”

Bitcoin has retreated from its recent record highs, which some observers note is not uncommon: some previous highs have also been followed by significant declines.

However, with Bitcoin once again being viewed more as a risky asset than a safe haven, experts are weighing crypto-specific factors to anticipate the next move for prices. Many of them remain optimistic.

Ben Quinn, founder and president of quantitative market analysis provider Into the Cryptoverse, looks to technical indicators such as Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average, which is currently around $100,000. He expects another rise in Bitcoin in the last few months of the year before a bear market in 2026.

“There is still reason for optimism as long as bitcoin remains above its 50-week moving average,” Cowen said on a recent episode of the Milk Road podcast.

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest and Fidelity — which are behind the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) and the Fidelity Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), respectively — recently published quarterly reports on the digital asset, highlighting potential near-term positives.

The Arc report cited indicators — public companies have boosted their holdings by 40% this year, and cryptocurrency derivatives markets are healthy — and viewed them as bullish for Bitcoin. “While short-term volatility is always possible, the confluence of strong on-chain metrics, institutional demand, and macroeconomic support suggest continued upside potential,” Fidelity wrote.

Matt Hogan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, the issuer of the Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), expects the cryptocurrency market to shrug off the latest rout because no major cryptocurrency player has backed down, blockchain has handled the stress test without any issues, and has been “largely ignored by professional investors.”

“Cryptocurrencies may be a bit nervous in the near term,” Hogan wrote.