Can Scotland find a way to end the All Blacks’ trick?

In recent years, landslide wins by 20, 30 and 40 points have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points again in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, strength, and deception, they get the job done.

We are now at the stage of the week where the optimism some may have had about a Scottish win is perhaps starting to fade. Hope collides with history. The dream fades as we get closer to kickoff.

We’ve been in this movie before. The issue of Scottish belief is that these blacks are not ancient, and they are not. They have greatness in their ranks but not in all areas.

They are missing two Barretts – Scott and Jordie. They lost to Argentina and were beaten badly by South Africa. Even in the win over Ireland in Chicago last weekend, they weren’t that scary. In moments, yes, but they didn’t have many.

Opportunity for Scotland? Yes and no. Thursday brought news that Xander Fagerson didn’t make it. For Scottish ambitions, it was a kick in the guts.

Fagerson has not played since April, but he is a freak and if he were declared fit, a long gap without a game would not be a major concern.

In an age where most props are replaced long before the hour mark, the Fagerson engine continues to work. No swashbuckling player played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations – 68, 67, 76, 61 and 80 in Paris on the final day. Quality minutes too.

Why are we talking about a player who is not playing? Because to achieve Scotland’s biggest single Test win since the 1990 Grand Slam with England – and to enter the all-time top three alongside the 1984 Grand Slam win against France – Scotland needs every one of its big monsters.

They are without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying well for Northampton. There is no such quality to replace the big zander. D’Arcy Rae is an impressive ruckman, but his Test career consists of 73 minutes spread over six years.

And when Ray is done trying to take the fight to the hulking Ethan De Groot, in comes Elliot Millar Mills. Millar-Mills is a good support but there is nothing to suggest he is an All Black Beat.

Red flags of Scotland on top. Ray will know that and will hope the interest in him among supporters will inspire him to deliver a career-defining performance. Aggression is required.

There is world class in the Scottish backline, but without stability in attack it will die at the source. For all the hype about what Finn Russell, Sione Tuipolo, Darcy Graham, Blair Kinghorn and the dangerous supporting cast can produce, a lot of eyes will be on how Ray handles. It’s not a box office hit but it’s hugely important.

Townsend has raised surprises in his selection, some logical and some intriguing. Kyle Stein’s game-management intelligence replaces the one-dimensional power of Duhan van der Merwe.

There is no recognizable truffle dog in the back row, as Rory Darge starts on the bench. There is no Andy Onyeama-Christie in Group 23, which is strange. Marshall Sykes, the giant, is 23rd ahead of Max Williamson, and that’s where the curiosity comes in. Williamson is looking forward to learning more about him. Townsend disagrees with this case. In such decisions, tests are won and lost.