Champions League: Is a play-off match really such a bad thing?

So, if you finish outside the top eight and have two more games to play, will that reduce your chances of Champions League glory?

As Paris Saint-Germain demonstrated so spectacularly last season, this is most certainly not the case.

In the 2024-25 season, Luis Enrique’s side were facing elimination from the Champions League when they lost 2-0 at home to Manchester City in the seventh round of the league stage.

But Paris Saint-Germain won 4-2 and then defeated Stuttgart 4-1 in another must-win game to finish 15th in the league. They then thrashed Brest 10-0 on aggregate in the knockout qualifiers, beat Liverpool on penalties in the round of 16, beat Aston Villa and Arsenal in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively before thrashing Inter 5-0 in the final.

Paris Saint-Germain faces Monaco in this season’s qualifiers, with Luis Enrique not interested in additional matches, saying his team is capable of winning two Champions League titles in a row.

He added: “If there is any team ready to go to the playoffs, it is us.”

“We knew we might have to make the playoffs. We’re going to have to take the long road, but I don’t think anyone else could be considered a better candidate than us.”

Other European club competitions also adopted a similar system last season, with Real Betis reaching the final of the Conference League, losing 4-1 to Chelsea, despite finishing 15th in the league stage.

However, it was not the same in the Europa League.

Seven of the top eight reached the quarter-finals with fourth-placed Tottenham beating third-placed Manchester United in the final.

Despite having two extra games to play, Opta’s football data specialists rate PSG’s chances of winning the Champions League higher than Tottenham and Sporting.

Newcastle and Inter Milan are rated as having a 3% chance of lifting the trophy, as are Tottenham.

After a perfect run in the league, leaders Arsenal are believed to have a 30% chance of becoming European champions for the first time.

However, they will be wary of what happened to Liverpool last season after Arne Slott’s side finished top of the league, then faced Paris Saint-Germain in the round of 16 and were eliminated.

Bayern Munich, which cannot face Arsenal until the final, has a 14% chance, followed by Manchester City and Liverpool with 10%, then Chelsea and Barcelona with 7%.