Chipotle stock fell after its third-quarter earnings report

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The Chipotle logo is displayed on a sign in a store on June 1, 2025 in Washington, DC.

Kevin Carter | Getty Images

shares Chipotle Mexican Grill It fell as much as 19% in morning trading Thursday after the company cut its full-year same-store sales forecast for the third straight quarter.

Including Thursday’s move, the stock is down 45% this year, dropping its market value to nearly $43 billion. At least five Wall Street analysts lowered their price targets for the stock following the report, anticipating investor dissatisfaction with the burrito chain’s shrinking traffic and bleak outlook.

“It is difficult to determine a bottom for sales given the multiple factors affecting demand,” Citi analyst John Tower wrote in a research note, as he revised his price target from $54 to $44 per share.

In the third quarter, Chipotle’s same-store sales rose 0.3%, but traffic at the chain declined. While many restaurant chains have struggled in recent years with declining customer numbers hurt by inflation, analysts are unsure whether this is the case. The perception of the chain’s value contributed to Chipotle’s problems. While burritos and bowls average about $10, consumers often assume their average prices are closer to their fast-casual counterparts’ $15 entrees, executives said on the conference call.

“Although we knew traffic had slowed at Chipotle in the fall, we were surprised by the volume reported last night and the resulting reduction,” BTIG analyst Pete Saleh wrote in a note. “We are confused about how suddenly this traffic vulnerability has emerged, and are not convinced that affordability concerns are the main driver here.”

Watch the full CNBC interview with Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright

Diners are visiting less often, especially those ages 25 to 35, a key demographic for the company, CEO Scott Boatwright said on an earnings conference call Wednesday. Same-store sales have deteriorated so far in October, and the company now expects sales at restaurants open at least a year to shrink in the fourth quarter and decline by a mid-single-digit percentage for the full year.

“We are very concerned that the menu and marketing actions taken to date have not adequately offset the decline in traffic,” Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said.

However, most analysts attributed the slowdown to industry-wide challenges, not company-specific issues that Chipotle needs to address. Unemployment, increased student loan repayments and slower real wage growth that accounts for inflation are weighing on consumer spending, according to Boatwright.

“…We believe the brand remains fundamentally sound (stable share of client restaurant portfolio) and expect a return to growth as the overall economy improves,” Sarah Senatore, a Bank of America Securities analyst, wrote in a note to clients.

Chipotle’s weak performance bodes poorly for its fast-performing peers Sweet green and reward. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbor called fast-casual restaurants “the horror of Halloween this season” in his research note covering Chipotle’s earnings report.

Shares of Sweetgreen were down 6% in morning trading Thursday, while Cava stock was down 8%. Both are scheduled to announce third-quarter results next week.

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