Chocolate Halloween candy is hit by inflation, tariffs and rising cocoa prices

The scariest thing haunting Halloween this year isn’t a ghost, goblin or ghoul, but the price of chocolate.

From Snickers to Reese’s to Twix, one of America’s favorite chocolates is getting more expensive, as tariffs, inflation and rising cocoa prices put pressure on profit margins and customers’ wallets, which could lead to fewer chocolate bars in trick-or-treat buckets this year.

Chocolate prices have risen about 30% since last Halloween, and about 78% in the past five years, according to data from research firm Circana and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 100-count bag of candy now costs $16.39, up from $7.20 in 2020, FinanceBuzz found.

This spike appears on store shelves. Various packages of Hershey — the maker of Reese’s, KitKats and Heath bars — rose by about 22%, while Mars, the company behind M&M’s and Milky Way, raised prices by about 12%, according to the Century Foundation, a progressive, independent think tank, and the Groundwork Collaborative.

“The season is off to a slow start,” Hershey CEO Kirk Tanner told investors on an earnings call Thursday, warning that holiday sales could be lower this year.

About 4 in 5 Americans buy candy for the Halloween holiday, according to YouGov. This time of year accounts for about 18% of annual confectionery sales in the United States, which is second only to Christmas, according to the National Confectioners Association.

But chocolate’s dominance is declining. Circana found that it accounted for 52% of Halloween candy sales last year, compared to 44% this year, as shoppers turned to cheaper and more trendy sweets.

“Macroeconomic headwinds” are among the reasons, said Sally White, who works at global consumer packaged goods analysis firm Circana and as a consultant in the food service industry. “It’s the compound effect on top of the fact that we’ve outpaced wage growth. So consumers are starting to… [make] Very specific choices on discretionary items.”

At the sector level, candy prices are exceeding the national inflation rate, registering a nearly 10% increase compared to last year, according to the Century Foundation. However, the National Retail Federation said 2025 is expected to be a record year for candy sales in the United States, with about $3.9 billion spent on Halloween candy alone.

“Even as consumers face rising food prices, they continue to leave room in their budgets for chocolate and candy, which means this category is strong, vibrant and growing,” Carly Schildhaus, a spokeswoman for the National Confectionery Association, told CNBC.

Experts said most of the chocolate that filled U.S. shelves this fall was made from cocoa beans purchased at record prices last December, when futures peaked above $12,000 a ton. Prices have since fallen to around $6,000, but that’s still more than double the pre-pandemic average.

A combination of rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, drought and crop diseases over the past three years has devastated crops in West Africa, which produces nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa production. The result: the largest global cocoa deficit in 60 years, with supply half a million tons short of demand.

Prices may stabilize, but not decline, by next year as crop yields increase, said David Branch, sector director at the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute.

“It’s not just about the cost of manufacturing cocoa and other ingredients,” Branch told CNBC. “It’s also a combination of labour, transportation, fuel and overhead [and] “All of these factors, given the rate of inflation we are experiencing, have gone up and not really gone down.”

Hershey said Thursday that the tariff expense will cost the company between $160 million to $170 million this year. In July, it also announced lower price increases, although executives said those increases were not related to tariffs or Halloween prices.

Chocolate makers have lobbied the Trump administration for tariff exemptions on cocoa and other agricultural imports, arguing that they have little ability to obtain these ingredients domestically.

As the cost of chocolate rises, fruity, sour and chewy candies become more popular. More than half of shoppers said they planned to prioritize gummy candy for Halloween this year, NielsenIQ found.

On average, the price of a pound of chocolate rose nearly 14% in the 12 weeks ending Oct. 5, while sales volumes fell 6%, Circana data shows. Non-chocolate Halloween candy, such as Jolly Ranchers and Skittles, saw sales rise 8.3% in the same period.

Young people, especially Gen Z, are also driving growth in non-chocolate categories, as they gravitate towards gummies, freeze-dried sweets and TikTok-friendly flavor combinations.

“It’s a trial run [aspect] Because you can have it [non-chocolate items] “With chewy and sweet flavors and spicy, sweet and spicy flavors,” White told CNBC. “Some candies get this big explosion of flavors in your mouth. We’ve seen them be popular with different groups.”

Chocolate makers are responding in kind. The Hershey Company has expanded its chewing gum lineup, including a partnership with Shaquille O’Neal, and introduced ghost-shaped Twizzlers and mismatched Jolly Rancher “Trickies” gum.

Mondelez InternationalThe maker of Cadbury and Toblerone said it was also prioritizing chewing gum in the US market. However, CEO Dirk van de Put said on an earnings call Tuesday that the U.S. market in particular is “slower than we have seen in a long time” and that the company’s promotional strategy earlier this year “did not give us the volume impact we were hoping for.”

Manufacturers are also experimenting with smaller bars, new fillings and cocoa-free options such as cream or nut-based desserts to offset higher ingredient costs, Branch said.

“Companies have to be very aware of whether they can keep their prices within their limits,” Branch said. “They cannot keep increasing their prices and expect sales to continue to rise.” “But customers haven’t lost their appetite for chocolate. It will remain a treat that people will always enjoy and can’t live without.”