David Ellison Paramount Warner Bros. 30th film release

Paramount CEO David Ellison is trying to do something no other studio has done in the modern cinema era: release 30 films a year.

Ellison once again promised this theatrical feat in front of thousands of exhibitors at CinemaCon on April 16. Applause exploded from the audience after he made this statement.

But cinema operators have privately expressed concerns and skepticism about the proposed future film slate. While a huge string of releases would help cinemas, companies doubt Ellison will be able to deliver on his promise.

His 30-film plan will hinge on Paramount receiving regulatory approval for its proposed merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, which the latter company’s shareholders approved on April 23. Ellison noted that each studio will produce 15 films a year.

However, Ellison didn’t provide many details about those 30 releases, and it’s not clear how he will achieve the ambitious goal. Paramount representatives did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.

It’s unclear whether all the films will have wide releases, meaning they’ll eventually play in at least 1,500 theaters, though a typical benchmark is 2,000. It’s also not certain whether the company will count films it distributes but doesn’t produce as part of that number, or how many of these proposed titles will be considered blockbusters.

Movie theater operators and industry experts doubt that Paramount will be able to maintain a 30-film slate after the initial merger. After all, part of the consolidation process is eliminating redundancy, which inevitably leads to layoffs as well as cost-cutting measures that often result in less production.

“When it comes to traditional wide release films, 30 films a year is a lofty plan given that most distributors average 10 to 15 wide releases each year,” said Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore.

In the past 25 years, no studio has released 30 films in one year. The merger between 20th Century Fox and Searchlight came close in 2006 when the studios had 25 wide releases, according to data from Comscore.

The data also shows that when studios have combined in the past, the result has been fewer theatrical releases, not more.

Prior to the acquisition of 21st Century Fox and its studio assets, Disney had averaged 12 films per year dating back to 2000. Meanwhile, the combined efforts of 20th Century Fox and Searchlight averaged 16 films during the same period. Excluding 2020, in which theatrical releases were affected by movie theater closures due to the pandemic, Disney has averaged about 13 films per year after the 2019 acquisition.

The line graph shows the annual film releases of Disney and 20th Century between 2000 and 2019 before the eventual merger between the two companies.

“I don’t remember any case of mergers where one plus one equals two,” Eric Handler, managing director and senior research analyst at Roth Capital Partners, told CNBC.

Additionally, you may encounter the Paramount and Warner Bros. roster. Some of the logistical issues of putting 30 films into a 52-week calendar, plus competition for premium large format theatres.

The broader Hollywood group has also rejected the merger, citing similar concerns about job losses and reduced production. More than 4,000 celebrities, including Robert De Niro, David Fincher, Pedro Pascal and Florence Pugh, have signed an open letter opposing the merger of the two companies.

However, there is at least one theater operator that supports the merge. AMC CEO Adam Aron expressed his support for Paramount’s acquisition of Warner Bros. During CinemaCon earlier this month.

“Of particular interest are David’s public commitments to expand film distribution by Paramount and Warner to at least 30 films per year, and his vocal embrace of an exclusive 45-day theatrical window,” he wrote in a statement.

He added: “I am confident that David Ellison is sincere in his intentions, and I truly believe that he will in fact deliver on these commitments.”

However, Ellison’s goal will not only be higher than any recent precedent, it will be much larger.

“Historically, the max you see outside of a studio is 20 people a year,” said Doug Kreutz, senior research analyst at TD Coin.

He pointed out that studios like Disney, Universal and Warner Bros. have the money to produce 30 films a year, but they don’t, not only because it’s not profitable to do so, but also because few studios have enough high-quality intellectual property or original stories to put out in one year.

“If you have 30 good ideas, I’d say go for it, but you won’t do it,” he said. “Most studios don’t have 20 good ideas.”

“I think the fact of the matter is they will realize it, and they probably do realize it, but they say 30 because you’re trying to get the deal approved,” Kreutz added. “I would say my guess is that there is no year where Warner plus Paramount releases 30 films unless the slates are already in place before the merger.”

This sentiment was echoed by industry analysts, movie theater owners and even rival studios during CNBC’s special talks at CinemaCon earlier this month. Furthermore, there was an overwhelming sense of tension between studios and cinema operators, especially when it came to the number of theatrical titles on offer.

Theater companies would welcome more high-quality releases, but there has been a shortage of these post-Covid.

“I tell people the only thing the show has is empty seats and empty screens until the studios step up and give us something to play,” one veteran movie theater executive, who requested anonymity to speak frankly, told CNBC. “We have no other alternative.”

The executive noted that re-released movies, live sports, and concert shows “aren’t paying the bills,” and even franchise sales aren’t bringing in the same revenue they used to.

“We can’t live without movies,” the executive said.

Movie theaters have struggled in the wake of the pandemic due to a shortage of titles. Production slowed due to coronavirus-related shutdowns, and was exacerbated when the writers’ and actors’ unions went on strike just a few years later. At the same time, streaming has become more prominent and studios are producing fewer titles for theatrical release.

Fewer films resulted in lower domestic box office revenues. Before the pandemic, annual ticket sales routinely topped $11 billion in the U.S. and Canada, but in the following years, the combined efforts of the studios have yet to exceed $10 billion.

This year may break that trend, as the list of films is much larger. However, if the merger goes through, the release schedule is expected to shrink again.

“We know what’s going to happen,” the veteran theater executive said. “We know that when Paramount eats Warner, it’s going to be just like Disney-Fox. There’s no difference.”

Other theater operators echoed those sentiments when they spoke anonymously to CNBC. They also wondered how to fill holes in the slate if Paramount couldn’t execute on its 30-film plan.

Amazon MGM has really stepped up to the plate in recent years and has promised at least 15 theatrical releases a year starting in 2027. The studio is on track to have 13 in 2026. One of its latest films, “Project Hail Mary,” which hit theaters in March, set box office records for the studio and transported audiences to theaters.

However, Amazon’s annual addition of 15 films to the extensive slate was actually replacing films lost from the Disney-Fox merger. It would also not be enough to account for any title losses resulting from the merger between Paramount and Warner Bros.

“It’s not great for viewing,” the cinema veteran said. “It’s a losing proposition.”