Democrats believe that the path is narrow to win the Senate, but there is no room for error

WASHINGTON (AP) — Senate Democratic leaders believe they have a path to winning a majority in November, though it’s a path with little room to maneuver.

The party got a new boost of confidence when former Rep. Marie Peltola announced Monday that she will run for the Alaska Senate. Her bid gives Democrats an important fourth candidate with statewide recognition in states where Republican senators are seeking re-election this year. Nationally, Democrats must pick up four seats to keep Republicans out of the majority.

This possibility seemed almost impossible at the beginning of last year. Although the outlook has improved somewhat heading into 2026, it is still almost certain that Democrats will sweep those four seats. First, they must settle some contentious primaries, a sign of a party still struggling to move forward after Republicans take outright control of Washington in 2024. More importantly, they must also overcome challenges faced by incumbents in some of the most competitive states on the map.

And although some of the top Senate Democratic recruits led by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer have been lauded for their statewide success in pivotal states, some are nearly 70 or older, hardly the key to a lasting Democratic transition.

Republicans are skeptical about the chances that Democrats will be able to accomplish such a task, considering that most of the 2026 contests are taking place in states that Donald Trump won easily in 2024.

Still, independent voters have drifted toward Democrats over the past year, according to a new Gallup poll, a slight breeze on the back for Democrats they didn’t expect a year ago when there was little path at all.

“I would say it’s a much broader trajectory than skeptics think, and a much broader trajectory than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago,” Schumer told The Associated Press on Tuesday.

Republicans currently hold 53 seats, while the Democratic Caucus includes 47 members, including two independents.

4 statewide candidates in GOP-controlled states

Schumer argues that Peltula, who was twice elected statewide to an at-large seat in the Alaska House of Representatives, puts the typically Republican-leaning state in play as a potential rebound for Democrats.

It’s a similar development to other states where Schumer believes Democrats have recruited strong candidates: three-term former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina, and two-term Gov. Janet Mills in Maine.

But it hardly represents a quartet of guarantees. Brown, a longtime pro-labor progressive in Ohio that leans increasingly GOP, and Peltula, who was elected during a special election in 2022, both lost re-election in 2024. Mills, who is finishing her second term as governor, faces a competitive primary challenge from progressive veteran and oyster farmer Graham Blattner.

None of the four were very popular among voters in their states in 2024. About half of voters had somewhat or very favorable opinions of all of them, with Cooper slightly higher and Brown slightly lower, according to the AP VoteCast poll of voters.

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Age is another issue. After President Joe Biden, who is in his early 80s, dropped out of the 2024 race amid concerns that he is too old to serve, the Democratic leadership in the Senate has not changed course. Schumer, who is 75, has recruited older candidates, with several top recruits — including Mills and Brown — in their 70s.

“Voters sent a very clear message in 2024 that they are tired of gerontocracy,” said Liz Smith, national Democratic strategist. “They are tired of Democrats putting out old candidates and they want some new blood.” “And some recruiters, like in Maine, appear to be completely ignoring the message sent by 2024 voters.”

Schumer said taking back the Senate is critical above all else.

“It’s not about young versus old. It’s not about left versus center. It’s about who can win better in the United States,” he said. “So, these are all really good candidates, and I don’t think you look at them through one narrow lens. Rather, look at who can win.”

Primaries and partisan tensions

Before Democrats can test their appeal in the general election, they will have to navigate some primaries that highlight remaining divisions within the party.

Blatner, who has received the endorsement of independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, has shown a huge amount of donations to his rival in Maine, despite controversy over his past social media posts and tattoos linked to Nazi imagery. Some Democrats worry that his rebellious appeal could be a liability in November if he is the nominee.

In Michigan, the retirement of Democratic Senator Gary Peters opened a seat in a state that Trump held by a narrow margin. Republicans have united behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, while Democrats face a crowded primary in August after failing to appoint Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

Crowded or contentious primaries are also underway in Minnesota, Texas and Iowa, forcing Democrats to devote resources even in states that are not central to their path to a majority.

Sen. Chris Van Hollen is part of an informal group of Democratic senators known as Fight Club that has publicly criticized the party leadership’s approach to the midterm elections. Van Hollen said the group objected to what it saw as the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm — controlled by Schumer — “running in some Democratic primaries.”

“So, yeah, we’re taking a look at all of them,” Van Hollen said of his endorsement of more progressive candidates.

Republicans also like their prospects

Betsy Ankney, political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2020, acknowledged Democrats’ desire to defend competitiveness, but described Trump’s presidential victories in Alaska and Ohio in 2024 — by 13 and 11 percentage points, respectively — as formidable hurdles.

She said Republicans are “rightly focused on real, tangible goals in Georgia and Michigan,” calling them “very real opportunities for recovery.”

Democrats’ ability to hold a majority almost certainly depends on Sen. Jon Ossoff winning re-election in Georgia, where Trump won in 2024 by 2.2 percentage points, and holding on to Michigan, where Peters’ retirement creates an open seat in a state that Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points.

“It’s not just about where Democrats can play,” Anke said. “It’s about where we can play, too.”

– Unstable political environment

Despite the challenges, Democrats see reasons for optimism in the broader political climate.

A new Gallup poll found that 47% of US adults now identify with or lean toward Democrats, while 42% identify or lean Republican. This gives Democrats an advantage in party affiliation for the first time since Trump’s first term.

But the data strongly suggest that independents are turning toward Democrats because of their sour stance toward Trump, not because of goodwill toward Democrats. The Democratic Party’s popularity remains low, and a Gallup analysis found that as more Americans identify as independents, they tend to gravitate toward the party that is outside political power — whether Democrats or Republicans.

However, this appears to be a dynamic that favors Democrats, as economic anxiety creeps into an election year with little time before the sentiment takes hold in voters’ political thinking, veteran Republican pollster Ed Goias said.

“This creates an environment that will affect these Senate races,” Goyas said, expecting Republicans in the House of Representatives to lose their majority. He said Republicans assume the economy and political environment will be better.

He added: “I think they will eventually get frustrated going into the summer, because the economy, first and foremost, is not improving at all levels. It will be a target-rich environment for Democrats.”

“It’ll be close.”

Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa. Associated Press writer Amelia Thompson Defoe in Washington contributed to this report.