Democrats cruise to victory, and other lessons from Election Day 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — Democrats are riding high on their first major election day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Live updates: Election Day 2025

And while the debate over the future of the Democratic Party may be just beginning, there are signs that the economy — specifically, Trump’s inability to deliver the economic transformation he promised last fall — could pose a real problem for the Republican Party heading into next year’s high-stakes midterm elections.

Democrats on Tuesday won gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states to elect new chief executives this year.

Trump has been largely absent from the campaign, but GOP candidates have aligned closely with the president, betting that his big win last year could provide a path to victory this time, even if the party that occupies the White House typically struggles in off-year elections.

They were wrong.

Watch live: Key takeaways from the 2025 election

Democrats hope the party’s strong showings will provide a path back to national relevance — even if its top candidates take very different approaches, from toeing a moderate line to wholeheartedly embracing government spending to improve the lives of voters.

In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who has already been the target of Trump’s criticism could emerge as a national star if elected mayor. California voters will decide whether to redraw the state’s House map, as Democrats look to counter Trump’s campaign to reshape the balance of power in Congress.

Here are some of the most important takeaways.

The new democratic playbook emerges

Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger will become Virginia’s next governor — and its first female chief executive — while Rep. Mikie Sherrill won New Jersey’s governorship by running campaigns largely focused on the economy, public safety and health care.

Both have distanced themselves from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies and emphasized what Spanberger described in her victory speech as “pragmatism over partisanship.”

Read more: Less talk about Trump and more focus on the economy is part of the playbook for Democrats in Tuesday’s election

A growing group of Democratic leaders believe a moderate approach holds the key to reviving the party after the GOP won the White House and both chambers of Congress last year.

Above all, Democrats in both states focused on rising costs like groceries, energy and health care, which Trump has struggled to control.

In addition to moving to the center on economic issues, Spanberger and Sherrill have downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including gay rights and the resistance against Trump’s assault on American institutions. Spanberger rarely mentioned Trump’s name during the campaign.

Both also have resumes that might appeal to the medium.

Spanberger is a former CIA officer who spent years overseas working undercover, while Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty Navy helicopter pilot before entering Congress. Both have highlighted their public safety backgrounds in direct response to the GOP attack that Democrats are soft on crime.

It’s (still) the economy, stupid

Trump and his Republican allies have focused particularly on immigration, crime and conservative cultural issues.

But the voters who decided Tuesday’s big election were more concerned with budget issues: the economy, jobs and the cost of living, which has remained stubbornly high. That’s according to AP Voter, an expansive poll of more than 17,000 voters in New Jersey, Virginia, California and New York City, indicating that many voters felt they couldn’t get ahead financially in today’s economy, even if their personal finances were stable.

Read more: The economy remains voters’ top concern in the 2025 election, according to AP Voter Poll

Ironically, the same economic concerns helped propel Trump into the White House just a year ago. Now, economic concerns appear to be undermining his party’s policy goals in 2025 — and could be even more problematic for the GOP in next year’s midterm elections, which will decide the balance of power during Trump’s final two years in office.

This is despite Trump regularly bragging about booming stock prices and boasting of leading a new renaissance of American manufacturing.

About half of Virginia voters said the economy is the most important issue facing their state, while most New Jersey voters said taxes or the economy are the most important issue in their state. Just over half of New York City voters said the cost of living was their top concern.

It was not clear whether concerns about the kitchen table that weigh so heavily on voters might help break the stalemate that led to the government shutdown, which has extended for more than a month.

Democrats in Congress are demanding the extension of expired tax breaks that helped millions of people afford health insurance, while Republicans have refused to negotiate until the government reopens. Voters across the country said the cost of health care is important, but generally not as much as basic economic concerns.

A referendum on Trump?

The president has never set foot in Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earl Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, but it’s hard not to view both contests as referendums on Trump’s job performance — and the country’s direction under his leadership.

About 6 in 10 voters in Virginia and New Jersey said they were “angry” or “dissatisfied” with the way things are in the country today, according to the AP Voter poll. Only a third said they were “excited” or “satisfied.”

He watches: California’s redistricting battle is getting costly and deeply divisive

About half of California voters described themselves as “angry” about the direction the country is headed, while 2 in 10 said they were “dissatisfied.”

Fearing a bad night, Trump tried to distance himself from the election results.

The president has endorsed Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race, but has only held a pair of town halls on his behalf remotely, including Monday night. Trump also held a call Monday night for Republican candidates in Virginia, but did not mention Earl Sears, and spoke mostly in favor of the GOP’s nominee for attorney general.

However, Earl Sears has been a fierce defender of Trump, just as Ciattarelli was in New Jersey.

Despite Trump’s distance, his policies — including his “big, beautiful” budget bill and his massive federal workforce cuts — have played a central role in Virginia, New Jersey and even in New York City’s mayoral contests. In each of them, Republicans refused to distance themselves from the president or his agenda.

A bad night for the GOP could give Democrats a strong — if perhaps fleeting — start heading into the midterm elections that are still a year away.

A new star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City

Supporters celebrate at a watch party for New York City Democratic mayoral candidate Zahran Mamdani in Brooklyn on November 4, 2025. Photo by Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Moderates won Virginia and New Jersey. But it was a democratic socialist, as he described himself, who achieved victory in New York City.

Zahran Mamdani, a 34-year-old state lawmaker who supports sweeping changes to address economic inequality, will serve as the next mayor of the nation’s largest city.

Watch live: Zahran Mamdani addresses his supporters after his victory in the New York City mayoral race

His bold agenda and inspiring approach helped generate the largest turnout in a New York City mayoral race in at least three decades. It also dismayed some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community, who support Democrats but oppose some of Mamdani’s past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.

Mamdani beat former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who was running as an independent and had already received Trump’s endorsement on election eve.

While many progressives are thrilled, some Republicans in Washington have been quietly rooting for Mamdani’s victory. Even before his victory was final, Republican campaign committees launched attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey, linking them to Mamdani and his far-left policies.

The ad campaign is expected to expand to include Democrats across the country ahead of next year’s midterm elections.