Economists say the tariffs have led to higher inflation, and there are more price increases to come

American consumers are bearing the bulk of the tariff bill, and are likely to receive an increasing share of import taxes in the coming months, several separate economic analyzes reported this week.

President Donald Trump and White House officials denied that his import taxes had led to higher prices. But for many economists, the question is not whether companies pass on the cost of import taxes to American consumers, but how much. So far, American companies have footed part of the bill, but they are passing on an increasing share of the cost to their customers, several analyzes have suggested.

Inflation has accelerated since April, when Trump announced a sharp increase in tariff rates. The CPI is expected to rise 3.1% over the year in September, its highest level since May 2024.

Tariffs are a major reason behind high inflation, according to several recent analyses.

Trump’s sprawling import taxes, which affect products from much of the world, are on track to cost companies $1.2 trillion this year so far, S&P Global said in a report this week, which senior research analyst Drew Powers called a “conservative” estimate. Of that amount, $592 billion is passed on to consumers through higher prices, Powers calculates.

Economists at Goldman Sachs reached similar conclusions in a new analysis this week. They estimate that customers pay 55% of the tariffs. They predict that consumers’ share of costs could grow to as much as 70% in the next year.

In a separate analysis, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimated that the annual inflation rate, measured by “core” personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy, was about 0.4 percentage points higher in August because of the tariffs. Core PCE inflation was 2.9% in August, but would have been 2.5% without tariffs, they said.