Family offices fear a decline in the value of the dollar and lower revenues in the wake of the tariffs

A version of this article first appeared in CNBC’s Inside Wealth newsletter with Robert Frank, a weekly guide for the high-net-worth investor and consumer. subscription To receive future issues, directly to your inbox.

Family offices have been investing more cautiously since President Donald Trump announced tariffs in early April, according to a recent poll from RBC Wealth Management and research firm Campden Wealth.

In a survey of 141 investment firms belonging to ultra-wealthy households in North America, a majority of respondents (52%) said that cash and other liquid assets would provide the best returns over the next 12 months. More than 30% said that artificial intelligence would provide the best returns. (Respondents can choose multiple answers.) In last year’s survey, growth stocks and defensive industries were the most popular choices, each polling just under a third of respondents.

Family offices also lowered their 2025 return forecasts, reporting an average expected portfolio return of 5% for this year, down from 11% in 2024. 15% of respondents said they expected negative returns, while almost none had expected the previous year. The most popular investment priority for 2025 was improving liquidity, chosen by nearly half of family offices. The best choice last year, at 34%, was to diversify the investment portfolio.

The survey was conducted from April to August. Bill Ringham, of RBC Wealth Management, said market turmoil caused by tariffs and geopolitical tensions played a “pivotal role” in the pessimistic survey results.

While U.S. markets have rebounded to record levels since the spring, family offices still have other reasons to be on the downside. 52% of survey respondents cited the decline in the value of the US dollar as a potential market risk. the dollar It’s down about 9% since the start of the year, and banks including UBS expect the decline to continue.

The slowdown in private equity and venture capital exits, a common complaint from family offices according to the report, continues. Nearly a quarter of survey respondents said private equity funds did not achieve their expected 2025 investment returns, and 15% said the same for direct private equity investments. Venture capital had the lowest net sentiment, with 33% reporting unsatisfactory returns.

However, family offices are flush with cash not only to mitigate risk but also to make opportunistic bets on the future, Ringham said.

“They take a much longer view of their legacy and their families,” said Ringham, who runs private wealth strategies for the bank’s US arm. “By doing this, they are more likely to create capital to take advantage of opportunities they see coming into the market.”

This cautious optimism can be seen in the changes participants intend to distribute assets, he said. Only 3% of family offices plan to increase their allocation to cash and liquid assets, compared to 20% for direct private equity investments and 13% for private equity funds.

Ringham said investing in private markets is essential to creating enough wealth to beat inflation and accommodate a growing family.

“When family offices put together portfolios, they’re obviously looking at time horizons that can last much longer than individuals who don’t have that kind of inherited wealth. I mean, we’re looking at 100 years to 100 years longer,” he said. “If you look longer term, even though you may realize that private equity has not performed well over the last couple of years, it is still a place where historical returns may exceed the returns you might find elsewhere.”