“Fire and Ash” tops $12 million in Thursday previews

Disney James Cameron’s third “Avatar” film, “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” hit theaters Thursday, earning $12 million in early preview screenings domestically.

The Way of Water sequel got off to a better start and earned an additional $5 million in its Thursday opening in 2022. However, box office analysts expect Fire and Ash to make at least $100 million during its opening weekend in the US and Canada.

“A lot depends on how Avatar: Fire and Ash performs, and with less than two weeks left in the year, the film’s results will play a pivotal role in shaping its annual box office total,” Paul Dergarabedian, head of market trends at Comscore, told CNBC.

International markets will support global ticket sales, as it has raised $43.1 million in prelims.

“The circumstances surrounding each Avatar movie were very different,” said Sean Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory. “The first was a dormant phenomenon that turned into a phenomenon during its box office peak, the second was a beneficiary of pent-up demand for sequels and the juvenile state of cinema’s post-Covid recovery, and the third is now opening up in a more competitive market and a new normal.”

The Avatar franchise is a unicorn in Hollywood. Despite receiving widespread acclaim and massive financial success at the box office, the franchise has never attained the cultural significance that Star Wars or the Marvel Cinematic Universe — both of which are also owned by Disney — has enjoyed. Toy sales have faded and cosplayers wearing heavy blue makeup at pop culture fan conventions are few and far between.

However, both 2009’s “Avatar” and 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” have surpassed $2 billion at the global box office, with the first film approaching nearly $3 billion in total ticket revenue.

“The constant is the James Cameron factor,” Robbins said. “Audiences expect great visuals, sound and storytelling when they buy tickets to his films. They consistently meet or exceed expectations with long box office runways and exclusive theatrical windows because they deliver an experience that can’t be replicated at home.”

These strong results are driven by the sale of large-format tickets for screens such as IMAX and Dolby, as well as 3D screenings, which tend to be more expensive than regular tickets.

Although 3D films are no longer popular with domestic audiences, they are still popular internationally – especially in China. In fact, the movie “Avatar” generated the bulk of its revenues outside the United States, as its revenues from abroad reached $2.08 billion.

Dergarabedian said the franchise has consistently benefited from moviegoers’ enthusiasm for watching 3D films.

“The original Avatar, released in 2009, was a groundbreaking film that reignited widespread interest in 3D cinema, paving the way for subsequent entries to capitalize on the trend,” he added.

The international preview sales that Disney shared on Friday did not include China. The company noted that initial estimates put the opening day at around $17.1 million, which would mark the third-highest opening day for a Motion Picture Association film since The Way of Water.

“While Fire and Ash has a lower box office opening than The Way of Water, it’s all about the long game,” Robbins said. “Premium screens are closed in the new year, Cameron’s films are not front-running like most Hollywood franchises, and international performance will once again far outpace domestic.”