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Amid recession fears, government shutdowns and uncertainty about tariffs, consumers are increasingly differentiated in their spending.
Wealthier Americans are using up their purchasing power, while lower-income Americans are beginning to decline—usually described as a “K”-shaped economy. Friday’s CPI report may shed more light on the pressures facing large swaths of the country.
The Consumer Price Index report, which measures price changes across a range of goods and services, was postponed due to the government shutdown, and was scheduled to be released nine days ago. Although the report will not include any data related to the shutdown, it will provide a read on the state of inflation ahead of the Social Security Administration’s Nov. 1 deadline for calculating annual cost-of-living adjustments.
Low- and middle-income consumers have been hardest hit by rising costs for daily necessities like groceries and gas. Meanwhile, wealthy investors benefited from stock market rallies and rising home values. Recent data from JP Morgan The Cost of Living Study found that income bracket was a large factor in Americans’ varying opinions about the current state of the economy.
Here the bifurcation begins to take hold:
Food and drinks
coca cola, Often viewed as a leader in consumer financial health, it has seen the difference across its business.
Higher-priced products more exposed to higher-income consumers, such as Topo Chico sparkling water and Fairlife protein shakes, are fueling the company’s sales growth, CEO James Quincey told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday.
At the same time, Coca-Cola is seeing rising demand at both dollar stores that cater to lower-income consumers looking for deals and upscale outlets skewed toward more affluent consumers, such as fast-casual restaurants and amusement parks.
McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” in early September that the burger chain’s expansion of its value menu was a response to a divided consumer landscape, or what he called a “two-tier economy.”
While Kempczinski said the company is seeing high-income consumers perform well, its low- and middle-income customers are “a different story.”
“Traffic for low-income consumers is down by double digits, because people are either choosing to skip a meal… or they’re choosing to just eat at home,” he said last month.
There is a similar dynamic happening in Chipotleaccording to CFO Adam Reimer.
“There are certain groups of consumers, certainly low-income people, who are feeling the pressure right now. That’s something we have to take into account when looking at price in the future,” Reimer told Reuters in July.
Cars and airline tickets
Last month, the average price of a new vehicle surpassed $50,000 for the first time ever, according to Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book.
This record pricing comes as car loan defaults and repossessions are on the rise, especially for those with FICO scores below 620.
“Today’s auto market is driven by wealthier households who have access to capital and good loan rates and support the upper end of the market,” Erin Keating, executive analyst for Cox Automotive, said in a statement last week.
Although airlines have been experimenting with premium offers for years, higher-cost tickets have gained momentum in recent months.
Delta Airlines It said earlier this month that revenue from its premium offerings is expected to exceed the coach cabin next year, with CEO Ed Bastian saying he sees no signs of slowing down in the more spacious and more expensive seats.
hospitality
However, although there are signs of a K-shaped economy, some argue that it is not here to stay.
Hilton CEO Christopher Nassetta told CNBC last month that he sees a split, but he doesn’t expect that pattern to continue for much longer, in part because he sees inflation and interest rates falling.
“My personal belief is that when we look at the fourth quarter and especially next year, we’re going to see a very significant shift in those dynamics, which means I don’t think you’re going to continue to have that bifurcation,” Nassetta said. “That doesn’t mean I think the high end will get worse or worse, I just think the middle and low end will move higher.”
The hotel chain on Wednesday announced a decline in revenue for its more affordable brands like Hampton by Hilton and Homewood Suites by Hilton.
Meanwhile, Nassetta told investors on an earnings call that revenue from luxury offerings has performed very well and remains a focus for Hilton moving forward.
— CNBC’s Amelia Lucas, Michael Wayland, Alex Haring, Luke Fountain and Leslie Joseph contributed to this report.
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