Here’s what to watch for on the first major election day of Trump’s second term

WASHINGTON (AP) — Tuesday marks the nation’s first major Election Day since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, and his leadership and policies have dominated the debate in nearly every race — despite the Republican’s absence from the campaign trail.

The biggest contests are taking place in Virginia and New Jersey, the only two states that are electing their own governors this year. Trump lost both last fall, but voters in each have a history of electing Republicans to statewide offices. GOP candidates have aligned closely with the president, betting that his big win last year can still provide a path to victory this time, even if the party that occupies the White House typically struggles in off-year elections.

At the same time, strong Democratic showings could offer the party a path back to national relevance — even if its top candidates take very different approaches, from toeing a moderate line to wholeheartedly embracing government spending to improve the lives of voters.

In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who has already been the target of Trump’s criticism could emerge as a national star if elected mayor. California voters will decide whether to redraw the state’s House map, as Democrats look to counter Trump’s campaign to reshape the balance of power in Congress.

Here’s what to watch:

Referendum on Trump

The president has not set foot in Virginia or New Jersey to campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earl Sears or Jack Ciattarelli, but both contests will likely be viewed as a referendum on Trump’s position so far.

The president has endorsed Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor’s race, but has only held a pair of town halls on his behalf remotely, including Monday night. Trump also held a call Monday night for Republican candidates in Virginia, but did not mention Earl Sears, and spoke mostly in favor of the GOP’s nominee for attorney general.

Read more: How and why does the AP announce winners on election night?

Earlier in the campaign, Trump gave Earl Sears only a lukewarm endorsement, saying he supported the GOP gubernatorial nominee even though he did not use her name. However, Earl Sears has been a fierce defender of Trump and his policies, just as Ciattarelli was in New Jersey.

Despite Trump’s distance, Good Night for Republicans will almost certainly be seen as a political victory for Trump and his “Make America Great Again” policies. A bad night for the GOP could give Democrats a strong — if perhaps fleeting — start heading into the midterm elections that are still a year away.

The new democratic playbook?

Tuesday offers a test of two very different Democratic philosophies offered by the candidates: toe a moderate line or fully embrace far-left progressivism. But it also presents a scenario in which either may succeed, or neither may succeed, making it more difficult to draw conclusions going forward.

The party’s gubernatorial candidates, Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, have focused largely on the economy, public safety and health care, distancing themselves from some of the Democratic Party’s far-left policies.

A growing group of Democratic leaders believe a moderate approach holds the key to reviving the party after the GOP won the White House and both chambers of Congress last year. Tuesday could be a key indicator of whether they are right.

Both Sherrill and Spanberger have downplayed their support for progressive priorities, including gay rights and the resistance against Trump’s assault on American institutions. Spanberger rarely mentions Trump’s name on the campaign trail.

Both also have resumes that might appeal to the medium.

Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty Navy helicopter pilot before entering Congress, while Spanberger is a former CIA officer who spent years overseas working undercover. They highlighted their public safety backgrounds as a direct response to the GOP attack that Democrats are soft on crime.

Above all, Democrats focused on rising costs like groceries, energy and health care, which Trump has struggled to control.

A new star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City

This approach is very different from the New York City mayoral race, where progressives are energized by Zahran Mamdani, a 34-year-old state lawmaker who identifies as a democratic socialist and supports sweeping changes to address economic inequality.

He watches: How Mamdani’s win could change New York City and the Democratic Party

His bold agenda and inspiring approach has attracted thousands of volunteers in New York and brought on the likes of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to campaign on his behalf. The matter has also alarmed some business leaders and voices in the Jewish community, who support Democrats but take issue with some of Mamdani’s past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.

Mamdani has entered a bitter race against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic primary to Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa is looking for a big surprise.

While many progressives are thrilled, some Republicans in Washington are quietly rooting for Mamdani’s win. Republican campaign committees have already launched attack ads against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and New Jersey, linking them to Mamdani and his far-left policies.

Trump endorsed Cuomo, posting online Monday evening: “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you don’t really have a choice. You should vote for him, and hope he does a great job. He can do it, Mamdani doesn’t!”

This is after Trump mocked Madani almost every day. GOP operatives are also giddy about the opportunity to use it to attack many Democrats heading into next year’s midterm elections — just as they have with progressive Democrats like House “squad” members like Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.

Effect of closure

Election Day comes in the midst of a federal government shutdown that has already extended for more than a month. Both parties in Congress are blaming the other, and there is no end in sight.

Does it matter?

Virginia is home to more than 134,000 federal workers, many of whom have been furloughed or forced to work without pay. New Jersey has nearly 21,000 federal employees, according to the nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, out of a total of more than 2 million state employees nationwide.

Either number is more than enough to change the outcome of the upcoming elections.

He watches: Federal workers are struggling without pay as the long shutdown begins to affect more Americans

At the same time, millions of people may lose vital food assistance provided by the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, giving voters another urgent reason to express their discontent.

Polls show that Republicans, who control Congress and the White House, receive slightly more blame than Democrats – although there is plenty of frustration directed at both sides.

Trump took the unusual step of calling on the Senate to eliminate filibuster rules that require a minimum of 60 votes on major legislation to try to force the government to reopen — though his party’s leadership considers that unsuccessful.

A test of Trump’s realignment

While Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey last fall, there were significant shifts to the right in both states. In New Jersey, Trump’s 16 percentage point loss in 2020 narrows to less than 6 percentage points in 2024.

These shifts have fueled Trump’s growing popularity among traditional Democratic loyalists: labor union members, black men, Hispanic voters, and young people. Democrats are particularly vulnerable in New Jersey, which has the largest percentage of unionized households in the country.

If these pro-Trump trends continue this week, Democrats could be in trouble.

But Trump is not on the ballot, of course. The Trump coalition — especially low-propensity voters — did not show up in the same numbers in non-presidential years.

Democrats are cautiously optimistic given that Trump has not campaigned aggressively in either state, a move driven by the president’s weak position and his allies’ concerns about the viability of Republican candidates – especially in Virginia.

Meanwhile, the biggest star in Democratic politics, former President Barack Obama, rallied voters in New Jersey and Virginia over the weekend.

Pennsylvania, California, and the future of elections

Pennsylvania voters will decide whether three state Supreme Court justices backed by Democrats will serve another term.

Read more: Why is the Trump administration sending election observers to California and New Jersey?

The outcome could shape the seven-member Supreme Court in the nation’s most populous swing state, and could have implications for key issues involving redistricting, midterm balloting and the 2028 presidential race.

Officeholders are not listed by party affiliation. The ballot only asks voters to cast a yes or no vote. But spending on the race is likely to exceed $15 million, indicating how important it is to Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania and beyond.

And in California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, often cited as a 2028 presidential candidate, is leading a campaign to redraw congressional maps to give Democrats up to five additional House seats in the next election.

The push is the focus of Democrats’ effort to counter new Republican maps in Texas and elsewhere that are drawn to boost the GOP’s chances in next year’s battle for control of Congress. However, for the new maps to count in 2026, voters will first have to approve a yes-or-no ballot question known as Proposition 50.