How retirements and redistricting could affect the 2026 midterm elections

Nick Shiffrin:

The end of 2025 brings us to the beginning of the midterm election year. This means questions about whether power will shift in Washington.

Dozens of members of Congress are moving toward the exit, and a group of states are changing their political maps to try to maintain partisan gains.

Lisa Desjardins is here to break down the numbers on the super-screen.

Lisa, thank you very much.

So let’s start with what is certain. Where is redistricting implemented and who benefits from it?

Lisa Desjardins:

We’ve talked a lot about the two biggest states at issue here, Texas, where Republicans started the redistricting war, and California, where Democrats responded.

In each of these states, the parties respectively expect to obtain between three and five seats. But let’s talk about the three states whose maps were redrawn as well. These are reserved for Republicans in Ohio and North Carolina, where they expect to pick up two seats. But Democrats also have a chance, too, in Utah, where a court-ordered map means they can pick up a seat around Salt Lake City.

So take these five states where new maps will be drawn up, and what do you get? Here’s the cheat sheet. This is a way to think about this mathematics. Republicans, that’s where they expect it to rise. But if you look at it, their gains in Texas were swept away in California by Republicans. The same, North Carolina, was basically canceled because of the potential in Utah.

That leaves us with Ohio, where the Cook Political Report expects Republicans to either pick up or pick up two seats. This is the story now regarding the status of these maps. Essentially, Republicans will either wash or pick up some of the maps with the maps in place.

Nick Shiffrin:

Well, the states where it is implemented may give Republicans an advantage. But what about all the states where efforts are still underway?

Lisa Desjardins:

This is the right question, because I think this is where people get confused and start to settle. This is what we particularly want to clarify.

Let’s take a look at what opportunities remain for Republicans. There are five states we are monitoring. They are all here. Some, like Florida, involve state legislatures. Others include court orders that we are awaiting. One state is not in this district, Indiana. You’ll remember that the Trump administration wanted a Republican map there, but they didn’t get it because Republicans in the state Senate rejected it.

Now, let’s take a look at what is still happening for the Democrats that we are watching. Here, there are three states, Virginia, where a new Democratic governor will be inaugurated next month. Maryland, we’re watching Wisconsin. Now, I’m not going to do all the math for all of these states because this is complicated and it’s uncertain which of these states will actually redistrict.

But this map tells the story anyway. You see more red and pink here. There are more opportunities for Republicans than Democrats. However, it comes with risks. And in places like Texas, Republicans are creating new seats on the board by diluting the Republican content of some of their safe seats. Democrats hope this will make them more vulnerable.

Nick Shiffrin:

Well, there’s turmoil on the maps, but it’s also turmoil among members of Congress. We have a long list of retirees already. What does that look like and what does it mean?

Lisa Desjardins:

Nick, we’re approaching a record pace now in the midterms. There are some big names.

Moderates like Don Bacon and Jared Golden are tired of Congress and its departure, but so are some big-name conservatives, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is leaving at the beginning of January, and Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the House.

I also want to note that Lloyd Doggett, Democrat of Texas, left because he was redistricted out of his seat. That’s who, but I think the number actually tells a more important story. Currently, according to my statistics, we know that 46 different members of this House are leaving of their own volition, and are not returning. Most of them, as you can see here, this red bar, are Republicans.

How does that compare? We looked back at the end of December to see the last two midterms. Here’s what you see. This number is much higher than what we saw four years ago when Joe Biden was in office. But look at this. It’s very close to where we were in 2017 under President Trump. Once again, it was mostly Republicans who left the country.

Why would that matter? I’m glad you asked. In fact, I asked for it. But in 2018, after we saw so many retirees, what happened? Republicans lost 40 seats. It was a wave election. There aren’t a lot of seats up for grabs now because of redistricting. But Republicans and Democrats, instead, really like their chances, because in order to flip the House to regain control, Democrats only need to pick up three seats in the 2026 election.

So, the main points here, Nick, one of the House Republicans, could benefit from their efforts to redraw maps across the country, but their members tell a different story. Their message is that they are leaving for the exits. They do not seem certain to expect to be in the majority.

Nick Shiffrin:

Lisa Desjardins, explaining, as always, brilliantly on super-screen, thank you very much.

Lisa Desjardins:

You’re welcome.