Job numbers are lost again as the government shutdown continues

How many jobs did the US economy gain or add in October? We may never know.

In a normal month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its monthly jobs report on Friday, with information on the national unemployment rate, job creation, and other data about the labor market. However, due to the ongoing government shutdown, the longest in history, this report will not be published. Moreover, the office never conducted the October surveys on which the report is based, raising the possibility that the data will not only be delayed but will never come at all.

The lack of labor market data is particularly troublesome for anyone who relies on such information to make decisions about investments, business, or public policy. The labor market has shown signs of deterioration in recent months, as uncertainty over tariffs, adoption of artificial intelligence, and other headwinds discourage companies from hiring. In the absence of government reports, alternative data sources are starting to raise red flags about the possibility of higher unemployment rates.

Economists expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to release its September jobs report shortly after the government reopens, as the agency has already compiled the data used to prepare that report. But October is in the air. No one is sure how the bureau and other statistical agencies will respond to the shutdown, which has kept them closed for an unprecedented period of time.

There are at least three main ways the BLS can address the data collection gap, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker said in a commentary last month.

First, you could ask survey participants to retrospectively answer questions about their situation in the week of October 12, which is when the surveys would have been asked if they had been distributed. They can send out surveys late and shift the “reference week” to a later date in October. Or it could skip data collection for the entire month of October, leaving a lot of empty space in the graphs.

“The longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the risk that the BLS will abandon its October data collection,” Walker wrote.

The jobs report isn’t the only piece of economic data that has been delayed. The economic calendar is now missing reports on inflation, housing construction, and a list of other topics that grows longer by the day.