Market contracts to predict Super Bowl ads raise insider trading concern

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sport Newsletter with Alex Sherman, bringing you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the world of sports business and media. subscription To receive future issues, directly to your inbox.

For many Americans, the best part of the Super Bowl is the commercials. This year, you could make – or lose – money from it, too.

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket currently have open contracts under which companies will run ads during Super Bowl 60, scheduled for February 8 in Santa Clara, California. Users can trade if Salesforce, Verizon, or Coca-Cola have a spot in this year’s Super Bowl, for example.

While Polymarket trades are just a ‘yes/no’ bet, Kalshi has some slightly more accurate predictions, such as ‘Who will appear in a big toy ad before February 9, 2026?’, with trades available for Sydney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet and Harry Styles.

It’s a new wrinkle to the biggest night in the advertising industry. The price of Super Bowl commercials rises every year as the Super Bowl TV audience continues to rise. Last year’s match was watched by 127.7 million viewers, a record. That game, which aired on Fox, generated about $7.5 million per 30-second ad, with 10 or so ads earning more than $8 million.

This year, NBC sold all of its ad inventory averaging $8 million per 30-second commercial, with between five and 10 ads selling for more than $10 million each, according to NBC’s president of global advertising and partnerships, Mark Marshall. The closer a company buys an ad slot from the game, the more it will pay.

According to Marshall, technology companies bought the most spots during this year’s list, although NBC knows the technology relatively broadly. (Uber Eats, for example, is a technology company.) Only two car companies advertise during the game. About 40% of advertisers this year have never purchased a spot in the Super Bowl before, Marshall said.

But the entry of prediction market platforms means Marshall has reason to keep details close to the vest.

For those who are not familiar with how these prediction markets work, they essentially trade like stocks, with contracts priced between $0 and $1. Contracts are traded up or down depending on the action.

For example, for the question “Which brands will be advertised during The Big Game 2026?” On Kalshi, Spotify’s value surged on January 19, rising from $0.35 to $0.69 before stabilizing. As of Friday morning, Spotify’s Yes contract price was $0.37.

If the expected result is achieved, you will be paid, with winning contracts paying $1 each, minus fees.

Polymarket and Kalshi also offer other Super Bowl predictions, including “What songs will be played at the halftime show?” and “Who will attend the big game?” (Lionel Messi? Elon Musk?), and more traditional sports “bets” like “Seattle vs. New England: Most rushing yards.”

While live sports predictions, like rushing yards, are little-known events, there are likely hundreds, if not thousands, of employees who know if their company plans to run a Super Bowl commercial. This makes some contracts ripe for insider trading.

Current laws prohibit insider trading in prediction markets, but industry experts doubt that the CFTC has the will or staff to police these problems.

Meanwhile, the question of whether sports event contracts amount to financial derivatives or gambling is dividing the sports gambling industry — and tying the federal courts in knots.

“Two courts have held that sports-based event contracts are not derivatives subject to the jurisdiction of the CFTC,” said Jack Murphy, senior counsel at Akin Gump and a former CFTC enforcement attorney. “These decisions are under appeal. If sports event contracts are not derivatives, criminal authorities could still prosecute insider trading in prediction markets under the theory of wire fraud.”

On Thursday, Michael Selig, the new head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said he had ordered agency staff to withdraw a proposed rule that would ban sports and political forecasting. New rules will come, he said.

Meanwhile, live sports continue to drive expected market growth. Calcchi is on track to achieve 44% month-on-month growth in total trading volume, according to Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Maule. The decade of “Who will win the Super Bowl?” – Seattle Seahawks or New England Patriots – Already accounted for more than $150 million in turnover.