More Americans have found work after a slow summer, and a delayed job report is expected

Thursday’s long-delayed jobs growth report is likely to show that the labor market bounced back in September after a dismal summer.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish its monthly job creation and unemployment report for September on Thursday, six weeks after its regularly scheduled release. The report was one of several official statistics delayed by the government shutdown that ended last week. It will indicate whether and to what extent the labor market has recovered after a significant slowdown during most of the summer.

U.S. employers are likely to add 51,000 jobs in September, according to a consensus forecast cited by economists at Bank of America. That would be more than double the 22,000 jobs added in August, but still relatively few by modern standards: the economy added an average of 147,000 jobs per month in the 12 months through April, for example.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, relatively low by historical standards, according to consensus forecasts.

The report will show how the labor market is weathering several headwinds, including uncertainty caused by increased tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on most US trading partners and the growing use of artificial intelligence.

It will also influence policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who will meet in December to set the nation’s benchmark interest rate. Members of the Fed’s policy committee are divided on whether to lower interest rates to boost the economy and labor market, or keep them high longer to push inflation to the Fed’s target level of 2%.

A worse-than-expected jobs report could push some Fed members toward lowering interest rates, while faster job growth would give ammunition to those who argue for a focus on inflation.

Thursday’s report may not be the final word on the health of the labor market at the Fed’s next meeting, which will be held on December 9-10. In addition to data from private companies, the Fed could see reports for October and November before then.

However, the November report may be delayed until after the meeting, and the October report may not be published at all or may include incomplete statistics, due to data not being collected during the lockdown.

That may be important because private data painted an unclear picture of the labor market at the beginning of the fall, and layoffs at major companies have made headlines in recent weeks.