Mortgage rates rose sharply after the Iranian strikes, reversing a decline seen last week

After falling below 6%, equivalent to a multi-year low, mortgage interest rates reversed course on Monday, hitting their highest point in two weeks.

The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed loan rose 13 basis points to 6.12%, according to Mortgage News Daily. It fell to a recent low of 5.99% on February 23 and stayed there for almost the entire week.

This decline was welcome news as the all-important spring housing market gets underway. Potential buyers have been sidelined by rising home prices and concerns about the broader economy. Mortgage rates in the 5% range have crossed an emotional barrier for some, suggesting buyers may seize this opportunity.

Mortgage rates generally track the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which rose back above 4% on Monday. The growing conflict with Iran has caused oil prices to rise, raising inflation fears and pushing yields higher.

However, it may not be oil prices that are pushing mortgage rates higher, according to Matthew Graham, chief operating officer of Mortgage News Daily.

“In fact, versus the CME close at 3pm on Friday, bonds were flat until 7am. By then, oil had already seen almost all of its volatility for the day,” Graham said in emailed comments to CNBC. “The essence of the bond sell-off occurred in a vacuum – strongly suggesting that Friday’s yields were dampened by end-of-month buying and that this morning’s selling is ‘new month’ positions.”

This highlights the possibility that the bond market will view Monday’s move as a technical bounce at the 4% level in the 10-year Treasury note, Graham said. This means it may be more difficult for interest rates to fall without real stimulus from economic data, of which there is plenty this week, including the monthly employment report due on Friday.