New New England Patriots

But there were signs during that win over the Dolphins that this year might be different. May completed nineteen of twenty-three passes, for two hundred and thirty yards, throwing for two touchdowns and rushing for another. However, the highlight of the game came at the end, when running back Antonio Gibson returned a punt ninety yards for a score — and Vrabel chased him down the sideline in excitement. When was the last time anyone in New England looked like they were having fun?

Since the loss to the Steelers, the Patriots have won eight straight. They sit at the top of the AFC East and have a good chance of securing a place in the first round of the qualifiers. And on Thursday, at home, they avoided an embarrassing loss to one of New York’s teams, the Jets, a trap game if there ever was one. What stood out most was what now seems ordinary: a quarterback meeting increasingly lofty expectations, serenaded by chants of “MVP!” Maye threw fewer of the stunning deep throws for which he was known, but it was a sign of growth: he seemed content to take the yardage he was given; Nothing was forced. He completed his first 11 pass attempts that night, and even after he calmed down, he didn’t turn the ball over once. He has shown time and time again how well he can move, dodge pressure and slide through danger to find open receivers, whether that means making tough throws up the middle on the run or making quick layups.

But about those deep throws! Nothing brought Foxborough back to life like the rocket spirals that Maye unleashed onto the pitch. Last season, New England ranked thirty-first in pass breakout rate, or the number of times a play gains at least twenty yards. They were 30th in this metric the previous season. Now Maye is one of the best players in the league on long throws, Diggs is experiencing a resurgence, and the team has developed a few of its other receivers into deep ball threats. There is no doubt about the culture in New England He has change. Vrabel has a tradition of greeting every player on his way to the locker room after games, and coaches are quick to compliment players. (This was not Belichick’s strong point.) For their part, the players ignore the praise; They talk about each other with delight and awe. The team seems to have found that elusive balance between trust, calm, accountability and community that characterizes many excellent teams. There appears to be a willingness to take great risks on the basis of trust.

Where does that confidence come from? Mathematical narratives inevitably have a teleological dimension. Once the end is known, everything that leads to it seems to be tools to achieve that end. In a well-sourced account of the Patriots’ renaissance in Substack Go for a long time Last month, soccer journalist Tyler Dunn reported that shortly after Vrabel took over as coach, he discovered trash in the sauna and dirty towels scattered on the locker room floor. He immediately ordered the players to treat their workplaces and the people who clean them with respect. The players understood that it was not just civility. It was a win-win. “If you want to win, you have to do the little things,” said runner Antonio Gibson. Dunne’s story was full of details like that. In Dunne’s novel, Josh McDaniels is no fool; He is the perfect coach for the hungry and talented young midfielder. Vrabel’s engaging style represents not old-school brutality but a necessary toughness. The cultural transformation is centered around the new success of the team.

Maybe so. Vrabel is right: respect really starts at home. Different personalities mesh differently, and what doesn’t work in one situation may be the same in another. Maye appears to be thriving under McDaniels, whose mastery of the Patriots offense has never been in doubt. “It’s fun to be in the headset with him,” May recently said of McDaniels.

It’s also undeniable that the Patriots have had an unusually easy schedule, perhaps even looking great because they’re playing weak opponents. Through eleven games, the teams they have defeated have an overall record of 30-54, and the Patriots have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. In fact, one metric pegs the Patriots’ schedule as the third-easiest in the NFL since 1978. Clearing the sauna of debris probably wasn’t helping, after all. And if some things had gone another way, or if a few of the loose balls Maye threw Thursday night had been intercepted, or if Antonio Brown hadn’t outscored the Dolphins and the Patriots had started the season 0-3, some stories — like the one about how Vrabel emerged from a preseason brawl between the Patriots and Washington leaders with a bloody face — might look a little different. Maye has had a great season. He might actually win an MVP award, but he’s been sacked more times than any other quarterback (among eligible players) except one, and the Patriots’ offense has been mediocre at all. If we took away some of those exciting plays, we might be telling a different story.

But what applies to negative feedback loops also applies to positive feedback loops. Encouragement becomes courage. Luck begins to look like fate. For many years, the Patriots couldn’t catch a break. Then along came Brady — the 199th pick in the draft — and the team’s fortunes completely changed. Losers become winners, until the cycle repeats itself. ♦