NRF says retail holiday employment is at its lowest level in at least 15 years

Total holiday hiring by retailers is expected to reach between 265,000 and 365,000 jobs this year, the lowest number of seasonal workers in at least 15 years, the National Retail Federation said Thursday.

NRF CEO Matthew Shay said on the retail trade group’s conference call that the employment outlook “reflects a declining and slowing labor market.” The retail trade group said it was a significant decline from last year, when retailers hired 442,000 seasonal workers.

Some companies may have hired seasonal workers early to support sales events in October, but retailers have largely tried to limit their spending as they manage higher costs from the tariffs, said Mark Matthews, NRF’s chief economist.

The major industry group’s forecasts provide the latest glimpse into the jobs market as a record government shutdown extends and leads to fewer government reports on economic data, such as unemployment and inflation. This has led companies and economists to rely on data from private companies or organizations instead.

Earlier Thursday, outsourcing company Challenger, Gray and Christmas said layoff announcements rose in October to 153,074, up 183% from September and up 175% from the same month last year. This represents the highest level for any October since 2003, and 2025 was the worst year for announced layoffs since 2009.

On the other hand, payroll processing company ADP reported net job growth in October of 42,000, reversing two straight months of losses in the private sector.

Even with lower seasonal employment levels, the NRF is optimistic that holiday spending will be strong. It said it expects holiday spending to reach a record high of $1.1 trillion to $1.2 trillion from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, the first time the total has reached $1 trillion.

This represents growth of 3.7% to 4.2% year over year compared to the previous holiday season, a slight decline from last year’s holiday sales growth rate of 4.3%. The NRF forecast excludes auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Even with low consumer sentiment, a prolonged government shutdown, “once again choppy tariffs” and price sensitivity due to inflation, Shay said consumers defied expectations and continued spending.

“Honestly, this was a bit of a surprise based on where we thought we might be back in April,” he said.

The trade group expects this dynamic to continue through the main holiday shopping season, he said. He said families usually cut back on spending during other parts of the year or other parts of the budget to make it a festive time.

Even as consumers continue to spend, the retail industry has taken a cautious stance on hiring — a fact reflected in the NRF’s forecast for seasonal workers. It’s the fourth-slowest year for retail hiring on an annual basis since at least 2000, trailing only 2009, 2010 and 2012, several years after the Great Recession.

Matthews told CNBC in an interview that the sluggish hiring environment comes down to one word: uncertainty.

“The one thing you know companies do when they’re in uncertain environments is put things on hold,” he told CNBC in an interview.

In an NRF conference call on Thursday, Matthews said the U.S. economy does not need the same level of job creation as it used to because of demographic and political shifts, including the retirement of baby boomers and President Donald Trump’s crackdown on immigration.

However, he said the level of employment and investment by companies will be an important indicator to monitor in the coming year.

He said the influx of investment in AI right now is a “huge boon for the economy.” But, he added, “it may be covering up some cracks.”

“We need to keep a close eye on how businesses feel and what remains of the uncertain environment,” he said.