Obamacare premiums are up to $1,000 per month. Should you register now or wait for benefits?

Why insurance premiums may be much higher this year

If you signed on to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace on November 1 — the first day of open enrollment in 2026 — you likely faced much higher premiums than in years past. This is largely because current rates assume that Americans are no longer eligible for enhanced tax credits.

The expanded credits, first offered through the American Rescue Plan under Biden, increased the previous support amount and eliminated the qualifying income cap. They are usually credited with making Obamacare plans cheaper, doubling sign-ups, and pushing the uninsured rate to record levels.

But it is set to expire at the end of 2025, causing premiums to rise significantly. They have become the main political flashpoint fueling the ongoing government shutdown. Democrats in Congress say they will not vote to reopen the government without action on benefits and other health care issues, while GOP leaders say they will not negotiate health care reform during a government shutdown.

“When and whether the two sides will ultimately resolve this issue remains to be seen,” said Gary Jacobs, executive director of government relations and public policy at VillageMD.

Market in Limbo

Meanwhile, many Americans shopping for an ACA health insurance plan are likely to experience sticker shock — especially seniors.

Research by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities found that without the enhanced tax credits, average ACA enrollees would see their out-of-pocket premiums more than double, rising by $1,000 annually. People in their 60s and middle-income people can pay an additional $25,000.

The higher rates reflect a loss of subsidies, as well as insurers’ concerns that younger, healthier applicants will opt out of marketplace health plans without assistance. This means that the remaining pool of enrollees is riskier, leading to higher costs.

But these prices could fall significantly if the enhanced tax breaks are extended. Most insurers submitted two sets of rates to state regulators this year — one representing the enhanced tax credits, the other assumed to expire — so the markets can effectively flip the switch.

Should you wait to enroll in hopes that Congress will extend expanded benefits?

Open enrollment runs from November 1 to January 15 in most states, although you need to enroll by December 15 to ensure coverage begins on January 1. If you enroll between December 16 and January 15, your coverage will begin on February 1, 2026.

The main reason to wait is that Congress may extend the subsidies, which could make the plans more unaffordable. But, no matter what happens, you don’t want to miss the final deadline for coverage in 2026. And even if you wait until the last minute to sign up, it’s important to shop before then.

“We recommend people stay online and see what their options are,” Shah said. That way, you can know what you’ll pay if the expanded tax credits aren’t implemented.

You will also need to proactively update your income, household, and personal information. “One Big Beautiful Bill” eliminated the maximum repayment of the premium tax credit, meaning you have to repay all the excess money you receive if you underestimate your expected annual income.

Some risks associated with early registration

Keep in mind that you can switch from one plan to another during open enrollment. (Outside of open enrollment, you’ll need to qualify for a special enrollment period to do so.) If Congress acts later, enrollees may still get retroactive benefits — as happened before.

For example, the American Rescue Plan Act was signed into law in March 2021, but it made the enhanced tax breaks in effect throughout that tax year and the following.

However, “there’s no guarantee it will happen this time,” said Stacy B. Lee, a professor of health care law at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School.

How to Shop for an ACA Plan This Year

Given the uncertainty and extenuating circumstances this year, consider taking the following steps as you shop for a 2026 ACA plan.

• Avoid automatic recording. The premiums associated with a 2025 plan may not be competitive. Additionally, under the new Trump administration rule, policyholders who qualify for $0 premiums are automatically re-enrolled with a $5 monthly premium that will be waived each month they re-verify their income eligibility. (This rule is currently still tied up in court.)
• Stay informed. “If Congress makes a decision or your income changes, go back to your marketplace account and update your information,” Lee said. “You want to access any additional subsidies as soon as they become available.”
• Look at silver plans for other subsidies. Consider a silver plan if you qualify for cost-sharing reductions (CSRs). This assistance helps cover your plan’s out-of-pocket maximum and is only available with Silver plans. “If the subsidies go away, those savings become more valuable,” Lee said.
• Choose a plan based on the price list. Otherwise, you risk being hit with a high premium that you ultimately can’t afford. “Get the most value at the lowest possible cost by considering all of your options,” Jacobs said. “And then hopefully the support will start.”
• Understand the ins and outs of your backup options. High-deductible and catastrophic health plans may offer lower premiums, but carry high deductibles and large out-of-pocket maximums. Alternatives such as short-term health insurance provide basic coverage and should be considered an option of last resort.

Top 10 ACA Insurance Companies

There are 62 insurance companies that offer health plans across the state and federal exchanges. Make sure you have affordable health insurance by learning about your options. Below are the 10 largest companies.