One in three Manhattan apartment owners lost money when they sold in the past year

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More than a third of condos sold in Manhattan over the past year or so were sold at a loss, even though the top end of the market fared better, according to a new report.

Despite a steady stream of headlines about eye-popping sales and skyrocketing prices in Manhattan real estate, the average price per square foot for apartments in Manhattan has remained essentially flat from a decade ago, according to a report from Brown Harris Stevens. According to the report, one in three apartments resold between July 2024 and June 2025 were sold at a loss. When inflation, transaction costs and renovations are added, the share of losses by apartment sellers is likely to be higher, according to real estate analysts.

While the data did not include co-ops, analysts say co-op prices generally performed as well or slightly worse than condos.

“Over the last decade, Manhattan has basically been moving sideways,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of real estate appraisal and research firm Miller Samuel.

Manhattan’s long-term price weakness stands in stark contrast to much of the rest of the country, where home prices have risen dramatically since the pandemic, creating a widespread affordability crisis. According to Redfin, only 2% of home sellers nationwide who purchased homes before the pandemic are at risk of selling at a loss.

Manhattan remains among the most expensive markets in the country, especially on a square-foot basis. Manhattan’s average sales price in the third quarter was $1.2 million, while the median is just under $2 million, according to Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. However, in the long run, resale analysis finds that the timing of a purchase in Manhattan is usually more important than location.

Apartment owners who bought before 2010 fare best. The average gain for those who sold in that group over the past year was approximately 29% to 45%, according to the Brown Harris report. Prices started rising after the financial crisis, peaking in 2016. This means for those who bought between 2011 and 2015, selling gains last year were modest, around 11%.

The biggest losers were those who bought after 2016. Half of buyers who bought between 2016 and 2020 sold at a loss during the period surveyed. Among those who bought between 2021 and 2024, gains have been minimal — although some buyers who secured deals during the peak of the Covid decline in late 2020 and early 2021 may have fared better.

Adding other costs of buying, selling and ownership would increase losses. Transaction costs in Manhattan can range from 6% to 10%, according to brokers. Renovations and improvements are not counted among losses, nor are maintenance fees or taxes. Adjusting for inflation would also lead to increased losses and decreased returns.

Inflation has increased by 36% over the past decade, said Stijn van Neuerberg, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.

“If you had invested in a Manhattan apartment in September 2015 (close to the peak) and sold it in August 2025 at the same nominal price, i.e. a 0% nominal return, you would have already lost 36% in real terms,” he said. “This is surprising because a lot of people think real estate is a good inflation hedge.”

He noted that the Case-Shiller national home price index rose 89% in the 10 years between September 2015 and August 2025, “much better than in New York City and also well above inflation of 36%.”

The reasons for Manhattan’s “lost decade” in apartment prices are as varied as they are disputed. The cap on state and local tax deductions, which began in 2018, has put pressure on prices and demand, as has the 2019 rental law. The migration of some high-income earners to Florida during Covid has also heightened real estate concerns, though population and demand have rebounded quickly.

The only exception to this trend was the market top. Those who bought and sold condos worth $10 million or more made double the profits, regardless of when they initially purchased.

Brokers and analysts say the increasing concentration of wealth at the top, rising stock markets and continued demand from those less affected by economic and market cycles have led to continued gains in the luxury goods market.

“The cap has done better over the decade, especially in, say, the top 4% of the market,” Miller said. “It’s because of Wall Street and the financial markets. The ability to buy with cash, regardless of interest rates.”

Two-thirds of condo deals completed in the third quarter were cash, Miller said, which is well above the historical average of about 53% and shows the Manhattan market’s continued reliance on wealthy buyers who don’t need mortgages.

In a market characterized by frequent ups and downs, brokers say the current rally represents an opportunity for both buyers and sellers.

“I am optimistic and have a very positive outlook for New York real estate,” said Jared Antin, executive director at Brown Harris Stevens and co-author of the report. “Although some people may have lost money on trades [over the decade]The losses were minimal. It speaks to the premium nature of the Manhattan market. Does everyone want to make money from their real estate? naturally. “But this market is incredibly stable.”

Sellers who bought during the decline in 2020 and early 2021 may also make profits when they start selling, Antin said.

However, with median prices near all-time highs and uncertainty about the upcoming municipal elections, many potential buyers would prefer to sit on the sidelines and rent, even if they are able to afford to buy. The number of New York City households earning more than $1 million a year renting more than doubled between 2019 and 2023, to 5,661, according to a report by RentCafe.

Furthermore, signed contracts for luxury apartments — worth $4 million or more — fell 39% in September, according to Olshan Realty, after increases in August and July. Brokers blame the rapid decline in inventory and a lack of new supply from apartment developments rather than falling demand or fears that Zahran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, will become New York City’s next mayor.

“There is definitely a downside risk to politics,” Miller said. “But as we have seen in the past, these fears are usually overblown.”