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📌 Main takeaway:
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Key takeaways
- Oracle is one of the biggest losers on the S&P 500 today, as shares gave up some of the big gains it posted in September.
- At the time, optimistic expectations sent stocks higher. Now investors appear to be looking under the hood more closely.
Oracle gave the AI business a big boost last month. This shot is a bit of a sore point these days.
Shares of the cloud computing and software giant recently fell nearly 7%, making it one of the biggest fallers on the S&P 500 today. That still puts Oracle (ORCL) up about 75% this year, but at about $292, about 11% from September highs set after the company reported big quarterly results and an impressive outlook — coupled with a stock rally that marked its biggest jump since the 1990s, briefly made Larry Ellison the richest person in the world.
Today’s slide notes that investors heard things they didn’t like during a presentation yesterday in which executives shared fiscal 2030 revenue and earnings per share targets of $225 billion and $21, respectively, both of which point to significant growth over the rest of the decade.
So what was it? Wall Street analysts — even the bullish ones, which are most of them according to Visible Alpha — have offered some suggestions.
Why is this important to investors?
Renewed trade concerns have taken the air out of some high-flying stocks in recent days as investors deal with a new bout of volatility, and the pullback in Oracle shares is likely not entirely unconnected with that context. But investors’ downbeat reaction to management’s presentation this week may also signal a shift back into wait-and-see mode after the September rally.
Deutsche Bank analysts said some investors may have been hoping for more information about the company’s capital spending plans. Jefferies cited concerns about relying on revenue from OpenAI. UBS made similar comments about the importance of Oracle’s large customers while noting that earnings expectations “are likely to fall short of some investors’ expectations.”
The takeaway may be no more complex than investors deciding that the stock, still roughly 30% above its September low, has rallied enough for now to await results that support Oracle’s view. Visible Alpha’s average price target is around $340, which represents a 9% premium to Thursday’s close.
“Although Oracle is well positioned as a major beneficiary of the AI platform shift, shares are likely to remain range-bound in the near term as the company focuses on building capabilities to achieve its goals,” William Blair analysts wrote today.
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