Oscars 2026 predictions: Who will win?

4. Best Actor

Once, last December, it seemed like this was what Timothée Chalamet would lose, and now it looks like it really is. Michael B. Jordan has been going strong lately for good reason: he’s the dynamic of Sinners and the soul of the movie. It has the difficulty advantage of playing identical twins. It doesn’t take anything away from his sharp performance to note the reality of Oscar voting: this kind of clean acting is just the kind of thing they’re going for. Chalamet gives one of his best performances in Marty Supreme, and he still has a chance, but he lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo, and more importantly, he lost the Actor Award (formerly SAG) to Jordan. In recent months, Marty Supreme’s prize money has continued to dwindle while Sinners has continued to make gains. I think Jordan would win, but if I were voting I would give it to Wagner Moura for his deep and natural performance in The Secret Agent. In fact, this category may have the strongest group of nominees this year, and a five-way tie that included Leonardo DiCaprio and Ethan Hawke would be a good thing too. (CG)

5. Best Supporting Actor

I love Sean Penn’s performance in fight after fight. Using everything from his taut braces to his bleach-blonde haircut to an array of twitches and grimaces, Ben is transformed into a larger-than-life grotesque figure, the malicious but hapless Colonel Lockjaw. Ben has won a BAFTA and an Actor Award so far, but he’s up against Stellan Skarsgård, who is a formidable villain of a different kind, and a cocky filmmaker, on sentimental value. The big difference between the two is that Penn already has two Oscars for Mystic River and Milk, while 74-year-old Skarsgård has none. Far from presenting one of his deepest characters, he may be able to win simply because the US film industry is so enamored of him – and, for that matter, of his sons Alexander and Bill. (note)

Warner Bros

6. Best Supporting Actress

This has been one of the most difficult and predictable brackets all season, and it still is. First it was Amy Madigan as the front-runner for Weapons, then Teyana Taylor for Battle After Battle, and now Madigan may be in the lead again after winning actor – really, who knows? Madigan has a long and respected career behind her, which works to her advantage, and Taylor explodes off-screen with the kind of presence that creates movie stars. It’s a classic race between veteran and newcomer, which could go either way, but I’ll give the edge to Taylor based on her tremendous momentum fight after fight. Of course, Sinners has momentum too, and Wunmi Mosaku has won a BAFTA, so she could pull off an upset. And Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas gives a wonderful, though quieter, performance in the emotional value of which I think should win. But let’s be realistic about this two-way race. Oscar voting has already ended, so all but nail-biting is over for Madigan and Taylor. (CG)

7. Best Original Screenplay

With a record 16 Oscar nominations, Sinners is sure to win in several categories. Even better is Best Original Screenplay. In fact, considering that Sinners was the highest-grossing film in the world in 2025 and wasn’t based on existing intellectual property, you could argue that Ryan Coogler’s script qualifies as the most successful original screenplay of the year already. And let’s not forget that Coogler is also the writer and director of the hugely profitable Black Panther and Creed, so the Academy probably should have given him an Oscar years ago. But even if you ignore his films’ box office returns, Sinners’ screenplay represents a major achievement. Coogler has written an impressive horror film, but it’s also a gangster thriller and a raucous musical that presents African American music as a magical force that can bend time and space. It would be fitting if the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay went to a very original screenplay. (note)

8. Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia? Frankenstein? Train dreams? For all the merit of these films, none of them impressed people with their scripts, leaving Hamnet and One Battle After Another the only real contenders for the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar. For me, Chloe Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell’s Hamnet script is simplistic and superficial compared to O’Farrell’s novel, hitting us over the heads with themes that float blearily from its pages, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s adaptation of Vinland by Thomas Pynchon is something else. In fact, it’s more accurate to say that Battle After Battle was inspired by the book rather than an adaptation of it. Over the course of many years, Anderson has taken bits and pieces from Pynchon, but repackaged them in a new cinematic form, revving up the story at breakneck speed, investing it with his own feelings about fatherhood, throwing in bursts of dark comedy, and bringing in so much contemporary material ripped from the headlines that you’d never guess the novel was published in 1990. The screenplay has already won a Bafta and a Golden Globe. It would be a shock if he didn’t win an Oscar as well. (note)

Netflix

9. Best animation feature

Oscar show producers always try to highlight the year’s most popular films, and it’s often a futile struggle, but they’ll get their wish with KPop Demon Hunters, which is sure to win. Why not? The idea of ​​a group of girls fighting monsters and saving the world was inspired. The film is fun, colorful and cheerful. It has a strong message of “be true to yourself”, catchy songs (“Golden” is sure to win Best Original Song) and has been a huge international hit. It won almost every award in this category leading up to the Oscars, and the only reason it didn’t win a BAFTA was because it wasn’t released theatrically in the UK and wasn’t eligible. Zootopia 2 won that one, and was a huge box office hit, but the feisty cartoon animals don’t match the authenticity of the lyrical demon hunters. (CG)

fight

10. Best international film

All five nominees are among the year’s strongest films regardless of country. In a sure sign that the film is international, the two top films in this category – Secret Agent and Sentimental Value – also deserve the Best Picture award. “Secret Agent,” a timely and exhilarating political thriller about Brazil under dictatorship, should win. The film blends personal and political stories, and is built around a charismatic performance by Wagner Moura. Although Kleber Mendonça Filho did not take home the award for best director, he was involved in the conversation earlier. Just a year after Brazil’s first-ever win, I’m Still Here looks like another exciting Oscar for the country. But I think the award is more likely to go to the Norwegian Emotional Value Film, which has nine nominations, including three for acting as well as direction and original screenplay by Joachim Trier. More important than this show of power, this emotionally eloquent family drama makes it easy to immerse yourself in its world. This might give her just enough of an edge over the more challenging secret agent. (CG)

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on Sunday, March 15.

—

If you liked this story Subscribe to the Essential List newsletter – A handpicked collection of unmissable features, videos and news, delivered to your inbox twice a week.

For more culture stories from the BBC, stay tuned Facebook and Instagram.