Pfizer’s 2026 guidance shows that the Metsera and Seagen deals will take time to come to fruition

Pfizer On Tuesday, it forecast modest guidance for 2026 as it looks to longer-term investments in its pipeline to counter declining sales of Covid products and declines in older drugs.

These obstacles are not surprising or new for Pfizer, which has seen a significant decline in sales of its Covid vaccine and antivirals after achieving record revenues during the pandemic. The drugmaker has pursued deals of all sizes in recent years to build new revenue streams, such as its recent $10 billion acquisition of obesity biotech company Metsera and its massive $43 billion partnership with cancer drug company Seagen in 2023.

But the directives confirm that these investments are still some way from achieving success. For example, Metsera offers a range of drugs that are still in early development.

The company’s shares were largely flat in premarket trading Tuesday. The stock is also flat for the year.

The drug company expects adjusted earnings to range between $2.80 and $3 per share next year. That’s just below analysts’ consensus estimates of $3.05 per share for the year, according to LSEG.

Total revenue is expected to be $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion, which will be largely flat compared to Pfizer’s new 2025 sales guidance of $62 billion. Analysts were expecting sales of $61.59 billion in 2026, LSEG Estimates said.

The company said the lackluster revenue outlook comes in part from lower sales of its Covid vaccine and antiviral pill Baxlovid. Pfizer expects sales of these products in 2026 to decline by about $1.5 billion on an annual basis to $5 billion.

Pfizer also cited another expected decline in sales of approximately $1.5 billion year over year due to some products losing market exclusivity. Some blockbuster drugs, such as the company’s Prevnar pneumonia vaccine, face greater competition from rivals.

Pfizer’s patents are primarily expected to expire in 2026 and 2028, the company’s chief financial officer, Dave Denton, said on a call with investors Tuesday. He said the drugmaker expects its $17 billion revenue to be impacted by patent expirations and regulatory exclusivity.

Blood thinner Eliquis, among the company’s best-selling products, will also have lower prices on Medicare starting next year after negotiations with the government as part of the inflation-reducing law. Some analysts also noted that the guidance likely reflects costs associated with the company’s recent acquisitions, including Metsera.

In a note on Tuesday, JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott described the outlook as “highly predictable.” Covid headwinds and R&D investments will be partially offset by ongoing restructuring at the company, he said.

On a call with investors Tuesday, Pfizer said it exceeded its cost-savings goals for 2025. The company is targeting cost cuts of more than $7 billion by 2027, and said Tuesday it expects to achieve the majority of those savings by next year.

Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Segerman said the slightly lower outlook for 2026 “leaves room for… [for] Adjustments in light of vaccine policy uncertainty.”

Pfizer and other drugmakers have had to contend with changes in US vaccine policy under Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic.

“Given the uncertainty around HHS policy and infection rates, we value conservative estimates and cost savings … heading into the new year,” Segerman said.

On the call, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said the FDA’s comments about vaccines “have no merit” and will not change the way we view our long-term investments in vaccines. Bourla did not refer to specific statements, but said he believed “this anomaly will correct itself.”

Earlier this year, Pfizer struck a landmark drug pricing deal with the Trump administration, which includes selling its existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed countries. Pfizer will also guarantee the same “most favored nation” prices on its new drugs to Medicare, Medicaid and commercial payers.

In return, the company will receive a three-year exemption from pharmaceutical customs duties imposed by President Donald Trump.

Denton said there is “pricing pressure and margin pressure built into” the company’s 2026 guidance as it plans to offer “deeper discounts” in its medical business as part of the deal with Trump.