Poll: Voters would prefer Democrats by double digits if the midterm elections were today

Riding a wave of recent election victories, Democrats have another reason to hope for a repeat performance in next year’s election. According to a new PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, a majority of voters say they would prefer to elect a Democratic candidate if the midterm elections were held today.

Meanwhile, there are several warning signs that Republicans are looking to make up their ground before Americans cast their ballots next year.

The poll found that if registered voters chose today, 55% would elect a Democratic candidate to represent them in Congress, while 41% would vote for a Republican candidate. The 14-point difference is the largest since November 2017, a year before Democrats won more than 40 seats in the House of Representatives during President Donald Trump’s first term.

Independent voters said in the latest poll that they would choose a Democrat over a Republican by a 2-to-1 margin.

A majority of voters say they would prefer to elect a Democratic candidate if the midterm elections were held today, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. Graphic by Dan Cooney/PBS News.

Democrats, as the party out of power in Washington, are seen as “the other guy,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. This means that voters are likely to want to give them a chance to govern in the midterm elections.

Democrats’ notable election victories in New York, New Jersey and Virginia also had “consequences in energizing Democrats” and perhaps dampening Republican enthusiasm, said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. She pointed to Trump’s declining popularity and economic frustrations due to declining Republican support, especially among independents.

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The winning Democratic candidates this year focused their campaigns largely on the rising costs of living in their cities and states. Since the election, the president and his administration have begun to address affordability issues more explicitly, including reversing course on some tariffs on beef, coffee and other foods, in a tacit acknowledgment that grocery prices are worrying for consumers.

“The Biden administration started the affordability crisis, and my administration is ending it,” he told a group of McDonald’s franchisees on Monday.

Given the list of issues, a majority of Americans (57%) believe that lowering prices should be the White House’s top priority right now. A majority of Democrats and independents, as well as a plurality of Republicans, held this view. Photograph: Steve Staples/PBS News.

Given the list of issues, a majority of Americans (57%) believe that lowering prices should be the White House’s top priority right now. A majority of Democrats and independents, as well as a large number of Republicans, expressed this opinion in the latest poll. Controlling immigration, the main focus of Trump’s second term, came in a distant second on the public’s list of presidential priorities — 41 points behind in first place.

Miringoff said the Trump administration has been “out of touch with the public” on affordability issues. Miringoff added that the president’s focus has been on other issues, including reducing crime, ending the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and eliminating drug trafficking from Latin America, “but they do not resonate” with voters.

This has partly led to a decline in Trump’s approval ratings since his return to the White House. Thirty-nine percent of survey respondents approve of the job he does. Also, 56% do not approve of his job performance so far, including 48% who strongly disapprove of him.

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His job approval rating has dropped a few points since his return to the White House to its lowest point during his second term. It is also the lowest since the final weeks of his first term, after a mob of his supporters stormed the US Capitol in an attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

“He lost some sets that he had put together to win last year,” Miringoff said. The voting blocs with which Trump made gains in the 2024 elections, including young voters and independents, “are now back to what they were before the election campaign.”

President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has dropped a few points since his return to the White House to its lowest levels during his second term. Thirty-nine percent of survey respondents approve of the job he does. Also, 56% do not approve of his job performance so far, including 48% who strongly disapprove of him. Graphic by Steve Staples/PBS News.

The poll was conducted Nov. 10-13 as Congress reached an agreement to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. As the government reopens, paychecks begin being delivered to federal employees and air travel returns to normal, 6 in 10 Americans say Trump or Republicans in Congress are to blame for the shutdown. Another 39% blamed Democrats in Congress.

After a 43-day stalemate, 1 in 5 Americans now trust Congress. It’s part of the overall distrust of American government and institutions that this poll shows. The presidency, the Supreme Court, and the media are also overwhelmed by the public’s anger. 61% do not trust the presidency; 62% among judges and 75% in the media.

These negative feelings extend to the two major political parties as well, with 65% lacking confidence in the Republican Party, and 71% saying the same about Democrats. While Democrats have less trust overall, that’s partly because 43% of their party lacks trust.

Despite this frustration, most recently evident in public disagreements within the party over whether to end the government shutdown, Democrats still hold the edge in the binary choice ahead of the midterms.

Gloomy views about the Democratic Party “do not prevent voters from favoring a Democratic convention,” Walter said.

However, everyone in power has reason to worry, Miringoff said. “This is also an anti-incumbent message.”

As Washington becomes increasingly polarized and political battles heat up, voters’ frustration with government extends to the way Republicans and Democrats view members of opposing political parties.

65% of Democrats say Republicans are mostly dishonest, and 85% say Republicans are closed-minded. 72% of Republicans say Democrats are not honest, and 82% say Democrats are closed-minded.

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With Republicans in control of the government in Washington, independent voters are more likely to side with Democrats on these measures of trust. Half of independents say Democrats are mostly open, while a third say the same about Republicans. Half of independents also say Republicans are mostly dishonest while about a third say the same about Democrats.

These rifts in trust and exposed political differences are likely to deepen as the country prepares to enter a divisive midterm election year.

PBS News, NPR and Marist Poll conducted the poll from November 10 to November 13, 2025, of 1,443 American adults by phone, text and online with a margin of error of 3 percentage points, and 1,291 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for Democrats included in the sample is 5.3 percentage points and for both Republicans and independents 5.6 percentage points.