Polymarket saw $529 million traded on bets related to the Iran bombing

Prediction market users have made big bets – and profited – about the bombing of Iran by the US and Israeli militaries.

On Polymarket, $529 million was traded in contracts related to the timing of the attack, according to Bloomberg. An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the United States would strike Iran by February 28 — behavior that could indicate insider trading.

The bets may merely reflect broader speculation about US intentions in Iran, but Bubblemaps CEO Nicholas Vaiman said the trading of information “involving war or conflict,” coupled with Polymarket’s anonymity, “could create incentives for informed participants to act early.”

Last January, analytics firm Polysights also noted a clear rise in bets around the possibility that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would not assume that role by the end of March.

In response to concerns that such bets might essentially create a financial incentive to assassinate, Calci CEO Tarek Mansour said: “We do not include markets directly linked to death. When there are markets where the potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.” He added that Kalshi will pay all fees from these bets.