Prediction markets head into basketball season after Super Bowl rally

Prediction markets saw strong Super Bowl results, but they were just an appetizer of a buffet of sporting events in 2026 that are expected to drive event contract volumes higher.

Kalshi saw record downloads during Super Bowl week, up 1,544% from the same period last year, according to a report from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower. The company said the number of daily active users jumped more than 1,100% to nearly 2 million on the day of the big game.

That was nearly three times the number of daily active users on sports betting site BetMGM, which is owned by the company MGM and Entain, which grew 81% to 680,000 daily active users. Polymarket reported 59,000 daily active users and 264% growth over the previous year.

More than $1 billion in Kalshi changed hands at the Super Bowl, an increase of 2,700% according to the company. Consumers are attracted to having so many trading options for the game in one place, founder and CEO Tariq Mansour told CNBC on Tuesday.

“Our cultural markets were huge this weekend. You know, ‘what?’ [Bad] “The rabbit he was going to offer had over $100 million in circulation,” he said.

Although prediction markets allow users to purchase event contracts for a wide range of financial, weather, pop culture and other events, sports have been driving the action and profits.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev disputes any investor concerns that the Super Bowl was as good as it gets for trading in sports prediction markets.

“What we’re seeing actually surprises us,” Tenev said on his company’s fourth-quarter earnings call on Tuesday. “In January, for example, NBA contracts outpaced the NFL in trading activity on our platform.”

The major sporting events continue, with the Winter Olympics offering a variety of betting options until February 22nd. This weekend, fans will also enjoy NBA All-Star Weekend.

March brings college basketball madness. With the NCAA Tournament kicking off with Selection Sunday on March 15. The entire tournament typically brings in more gambling money than the Super Bowl.

Then there is the World Cup, which begins with 104 matches in mid-June.

Kalshi has been aggressive in marketing, outspending Polymarket in the US by about 19 times and outperforming DraftKings by about 35%, according to Sensor Tower estimates.

The American sports betting giants still reign supreme. DraftKings saw 5 million daily active users for the Super Bowl, while FanDuel had 4.2 million, according to Sensor Tower data.

Both CEOs of sportsbook market leaders FanDuel and Kings Project They told CNBC just before the game that they don’t see any cannibalization of their traditional sports betting business. They instead see a real opportunity with sports connections and events in states that have not legalized sports betting.

Tenev said event contracts are the “fastest growing business in the company’s history.” Robinhood reported a 300% increase in “other revenue,” which largely consists of event contracts.

Growth is accelerating. Robinhood reported 12 billion contracts for the event in 2025, and has already seen 4 billion contracts so far in 2026.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a business relationship that includes a minority investment.