✨ Check out this awesome post from BBC Sport 📖
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✅ Main takeaway:
Premier League teams that finished with 36 points or more in each of the last nine seasons were guaranteed safety from relegation.
In the 20-team Premier League era, starting with the 1995-96 season, the average number of points needed for survival, or the number of points finished by the 18th-placed team plus one point, is 35.53 – rounded to 36 points.
No team in the past nine seasons has achieved 36 points and been relegated.
In the 30 Premier League seasons of 38 games per season for each club, 36 points would have guaranteed survival 60% of the time.
This season is expected to be a familiar story. After 12 rounds of matches, 18th place is currently on track to finish the season on 35 points, meaning 36 points would ensure survival for a 10th consecutive season.
This survival rate rises to 80% at 38 points, 90% at 40 points, and 100% at 43 points or more.
West Ham hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era. In the 2002-03 season, the Hammers gained 42 points, but were still relegated.
The safety thresholds in the last two seasons have been significantly lower due to the struggles of newly promoted teams in the Premier League. The last two seasons saw 26 and 27 enough points to secure safety respectively.
Only once before the 2023-24 season was a total of less than 30 points enough to ensure survival.
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