Premier League: What can xG expect for the rest of the season?

Aston Villa and Sunderland have almost certainly achieved their seasonal targets already, with Opta giving Villa a 96% chance of playing in the Champions League and the Black Cats having a 99% chance of survival.

It’s not about whether the two sides “deserve” their place at the table. The fact that they scored and kept the goals they scored meant they earned those positions, thanks in part to Villa’s outstanding long-range finishing skill and Sunderland goalkeeper Robin Rufs being the best goalkeeper in the league.

But what it does show is that this season’s success is built on shaky ground and there is still work to be done if Villa are to establish themselves at the top of the Premier League in the long term and Sunderland to avoid suffering from second season syndrome next season.

Villa fans will rightly point out that their team has regularly outperformed their team under Unai Emery, while Sunderland fans will claim that you can’t measure perseverance and teamwork.

But if we look at the points and points difference between the 200 Premier League teams in the last decade, it really shows how efficient both teams are in getting as many points as they have this season, with their points in the chart far behind the rest.