Senate rejects plans to address sharp rise in health care premiums

Jeff Bennett:

Welcome to the News Hour.

The US Senate failed to pass two conflicting health care legislation today, making it all but certain that the Affordable Care Act tax credits will expire at the end of the year.

Amna Nawaz:

As lawmakers prepare for a year-end recess with no deal in sight, tens of millions of Americans who rely on the Affordable Care Act are being left in limbo. The expired subsidy would lead to a sharp rise in health insurance premiums starting next month.

Congressional correspondent Lisa Desjardins was at the Capitol today and joins us now.

So, Lisa, tell us what happened today.

Lisa Desjardins:

What we had today in the Senate is that both Republicans and Democrats have one chance to put forward a bill to deal with these enhanced tax breaks that have expired.

Now, these are just – these are enhanced credits on top of what was originally in Obamacare. So we saw both parties putting forward bills, but frankly, Amna, none of them were likely to pass. Let me go through what they suggested first.

Now, the Republican plan is to limit the enhanced subsidies and move them primarily to health care savings accounts. Now that plan has failed. He received 51 votes, but that was short of the required 60. As for the Democrats, they plan, in a more clear way, to extend the enhanced support for three years, as is the case now.

That plan also failed, but interestingly, Amna got 51 votes. So we had two plans today that each received a majority vote, but both fell short of the 60 bipartisan votes needed in the Senate.

We have learned some things. It is clear that the Senate has not reached a point where these bipartisan talks are taking place that are necessary to reach a compromise plan. The other thing we learned today, as the leaders said in the speech, is that there is a political and political divide.

Senator John Thune (R-SD):

The Democrats’ so-called plan is to extend the status quo for three years, without reforms, reviews, or rethinking of the way Obamacare works, just a three-year extension of the status quo.

Senator Chuck Schumer (D-New York):

Republicans will have to answer to the American people and explain to the country why they choose higher health care costs over real solutions. They must — Republicans must answer why people are losing coverage. Republicans must answer why families see insurance premiums triple over the next year.

Lisa Desjardins:

This is not a great sign when it comes to pointing fingers, especially when millions of Americans are waiting for a solution.

I spoke with Senator Thune, especially afterward. He said that there were talks between senators. He’s not giving up on some possible ways forward, but time is running out. Senator Schumer seemed more inclined to believe that might be the case for this year, but we’ll see.

Amna Nawaz:

So it’s not clear whether the Senate will do anything else about this. What about the house? What’s going on there?

Lisa Desjardins:

Well, the house is very interesting.

The House leadership, Republican leadership, and Speaker Johnson are not putting forward a plan to expand these health care subsidies at this time. However, so are other Republicans. There is a group of members of both parties together. There were 35 of them, for example, last week, who – as you can see – proposed a one-year extension.

There are two different versions of this idea. These groups are now trying to circumvent the leadership by filing a dismissal petition. We talked about this on the show. This requires 218 signatures. I just checked a few minutes ago. None of the extensions proposed by a few Republicans have come close to that number yet.

They may also not have enough time to get this done by the end of the year. But here’s the hard part. This is very political. When I talk to Democrats, I think there’s a clear majority in the House that supports a one-year extension.

But the policy may not make it to the House floor, and it certainly doesn’t look like it will come before next week. So, there is a will, but there is no possible way in the House at the moment.

Amna Nawaz:

So there are a lot of competing dynamics here.

As you speak with your sources, give us your general analysis of the current state of affairs.

Lisa Desjardins:

Well, let’s break this down simply, because I know it’s confusing. And even for members of Congress, they kept pulling me aside and saying, help me understand what’s going on here.

So let’s look at this in terms of the three major problems that we face — and that Congress faces here. First of all, Democrats, from their perspective, and Democrats, for their part, are largely opposed to the reforms that Republicans want. This is a problem in the Senate in particular.

Now, Republicans, they are divided on an extension. There are a lot of moderate Republicans who, frankly, are vulnerable in the next election and who want to extend this and want to do it now. But Republicans don’t agree with that.

Finally, there is something that has not yet occurred, which is the abortion policy, Amna. This is a big issue in the Senate. There are Republicans who want that – and they are very nervous about the way forward and want to take a more conservative policy on abortion. Democrats don’t like that.

So that’s a big problem too. And all of this leads to this point now. Others say there’s a problem because none of this changes health care costs overall. It’s just moving money.

Amna Nawaz:

And finally, Lisa, I know the calendar is always a big deal here, right? It guides us to what is coming.

Lisa Desjardins:

You know I love working – looking at the calendar,

Time is tight. In fact, it’s actually worse than people realize. So let’s take a really quick look. Here we are today, December 11th. Now, look, at the end of the month, that’s the date that these enhanced tax breaks expire. Well, it looks like Congress will have time.

No, those red-orange days, those are the last days that Congress intends to be here before it leaves for recess. Now what about January? Another problematic deadline, the end of January, is when government funding for most government agencies runs out.

So, they are facing some problems around the clock, and they are not prepared to deal with any of it. Now, we know from KFF that there’s a real moment here. Today I spoke with one of their experts, Cynthia Cox, about where she thinks things are.

CYNTHIA COX, ACA PROGRAM DIRECTOR, KFF: I think it’s increasingly likely that these enhanced premium tax credits will expire. Even if there is some kind of last minute deal. We’re probably looking at people’s premiums rising significantly in January.

Lisa Desjardins:

A reminder of who it affects. So that’s not most Americans. It’s a smaller part of the US health care market, but 24 million Americans take advantage of Obamacare now. Most will see their premiums rise, and Cynthia Cox says the doubling begins in January.

We also know from the Congressional Budget Office that about 2 million people will lose insurance completely. Amna, this is not just an assumption. This is already happening. We know in Massachusetts, where open enrollment will close a few days from now, that 10,000 people haven’t registered again, and they won’t get insurance.

This will cause real health care and financial problems in the future.

Amna Nawaz:

Lisa Desjardins, thank you, as always.

Lisa Desjardins:

You’re welcome.