Sinners or One Battle: What can we learn from the anonymous balloting for this year’s Oscars? | Oscars 2026

IIt took a great deal of blood, sweat, and tweets, but in 2016 the Academy finally took notice and began to embrace diversity and modernity. The #OscarsSoWhite hype over two straight years of all-white nominees (Michael B. Jordan’s snub of Creed was the harshest in my opinion) led to a sea change and has continued ever since with more women, people of color, and international voters added to what had been an overwhelmingly homogenous base.

All of this has led to an Oscars race that has become increasingly difficult to predict, using old thinking in ways that have become rather dramatic over time, and the idea of ​​an “Oscar movie” is now much more ambiguous. Films like Parasite, Anora, Moonlight, Anatomy of a Fall, Nomadland, Get Out, and The Zone of Interest have now found their way into the main categories in years past, and this year’s crop shows even more progress — from foreign-language selections to outsider narratives to thornier characters than ever before.

With just days to go, it’s another year that’s excitingly difficult to predict, which is one of the many reasons why this year’s rhetoric has been more toxic than usual, and has led to an even more determined search for clues that might shed light on what Sunday will bring. The annual batch of anonymous ballots for the Oscars (a tradition that continues despite the risk of eviction associated with it) should always be taken with a pinch of salt, especially as the Academy grows, but with so many categories still up in the air, what can be learned?

Jessie Buckley has that in the bag

Okay, so maybe we didn’t need to do much scrutiny to figure this out (she’s the only thing certain among this year’s acting categories, having won every precursor out there) — but reading the ballots is a reminder that any perceived backlash to Hamnett or Jessie Buckley’s performances was online and online only. One Academy member called it “performance of the year,” another said it was on “a whole other level,” while it was also chosen by five of Variety’s eight voters and three from Entertainment Weekly’s group of four. If one had to bet, this would be the safest.

Amy Madigan may be a secret weapon

The Best Supporting Actress category is set to be a close one, and perhaps one of the closest acting categories. So far, One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor has won a Golden Globe, Sinners’ Yuenmi Mosaku has won a BAFTA, and Arms’ Amy Madigan has taken home both the Critics’ Choice and Actor Awards. There’s plenty of support for both Taylor and Mosaku among voters, and it would make more sense for the winner to come from a movie with other nominations (the last time the winner in this category was the only nominee for a movie was Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona) — but there’s enough enthusiasm to suggest it might be Madigan’s night. She scores with two of Entertainment Weekly’s four voters (“It’s remarkable for a veteran actress”), Variety’s synopsis claims she brings “great goodwill” from the Los Angeles ensemble, another picks her while praising her personality and career, another calls her a “classic” role, and yet another picks her for a “garish, nutty, crazy” performance. Sorry for the sentimental value reps, but this appears to be a three-way battle.

Sinners enjoy the upper hand one battle after another

It’s gradually become a race between two writer-led projects that are both from the same studio and are both really great one-offs. Indications are that “Battle after Battle” will have a better night (it has wins with the PGA Awards, Golden Globes, Baftas and Critics Choice Awards), but Sinners’ late rise following Actor Awards success has caused many to change their bets. On fair ballots alone, this would seem a smarter choice. It had a slight edge in both Variety and EW (with one voter calling it a “masterpiece” and another saying it “made me remember what theater is”), an unnamed producer said they had seen it three times on the big screen and picked it for almost every category it was in, another gave it a similar sweep in reference to the “joyful” feeling it gave them, and another also said they would “vote for it with all my heart.” A number of voters also indicate a desire to “spread the wealth”, so it may not be a sweep for one or the other.

but It may not be two-Horse racing after all…

There are still plenty of voters who have shown their support one battle after another, albeit noticeably fewer sinners, but also a few other choices that suggest it may not be as simple as we thought. There was an ardent lover of sentimental value (“Amazing, almost perfect”), a ride-or-die Marty Supreme (“the most enjoyable rollercoaster ride experience”), a Hamnett stan (“punched me in the gut”), a Bogonia supporter (“I never stopped to think about it”) and even a Train Dreams believer (“I loved everything about it”). There aren’t many Formula 1 bosses, though…

This could finally be Paul Thomas Anderson’s year

There are still plenty of naysayers for Battle After Battle (one called it “the most problematic film for the black community since Green Book”) but there’s also a great deal of support for its director, Paul Thomas Anderson. Like a lot of major races, the One Battle v Sinners showdown is set to be with Ryan Coogler, his closest competitor, and there are enough votes for both to suggest it will be close. The PTA panel discusses why the director is so late (“It’s his time,” says another (“It’s Paul’s time!” says another) and how he’s at the top of his game with his latest film (“There’s no director like him”), while another praises him in stark comparison to his rivals (“The only director who’s made a film I’ll remember 15 to 20 years from now”). While voters traditionally prefer to split picture and director between two different films, the past six years have seen one film take home both awards, so whoever wins that award can tell us everything we need to know about the biggest award of the night.

Wagner Moura could be a spoiler for Best Actor

It seemed like the Best Actor Oscar was like the one Timothée Chalamet had been missing out on for most of the season. He won both a Golden Globe and a Critics Choice Award, and his live-action campaign seemed to be paying off as everyone talked about and praised his performance in the surprise box office hit Marty Supreme. But his manic energy and stubborn insistence slowly began to cause tension, at least for the ultimate Internet (as many seemed to ignore, his comments at ballet and opera sparked outrage). after Voting is closed.) It could be him, with a group of voters choosing him, but the rest appears to go to either Sinners’ Michael B. Jordan (who is the current favorite) or The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura (with some votes still for One Battle’s Leonardo DiCaprio, who has drifted out). Jordan may be the best, but Moura has some surprising power, with two of EW’s ballots picking him up (“It’s impossible to imagine the movie without him”), another picking him up noting that there was “more affinity for foreign language roles” at the New Academy, and one voter noting that they “loved the movie, and it hit all the notes.” Another impossible close race.

The new rules did not go well

For the first time ever, Academy members are required to watch every film in a category before casting their votes. Everything is tracked for compliance through the Academy’s Digital Demo Room, a fair app that in theory should force members to give things a fairer shake – but there were enough anonymous quirks to suggest it wasn’t going well. One voter admitted he “didn’t have the time” and declined to vote in some categories (including best supporting actress), and another laughingly called it “noble” but said “when movies are 13 hours long, everyone’s lying this year.” “I know my colleagues don’t watch all the movies,” said one, while one Oscar-nominated director went so far as not to vote at all, calling the awards “irrelevant” and the films too weak to watch all the way through.