Someone made $400,000 from Polymarket betting on the capture of Nicolas Maduro

Shortly before the US military launched an attack on Venezuela and arrested President Nicolas Maduro, a Polymarket account sparked some news. very Investments at suspicious timing. The forecast market was betting on when or whether Maduro would be removed from power, with “exit by January 31, 2026” prices falling to $0.07 late Friday evening. But within 24 hours of military action, the newly created account had invested tens of thousands of dollars, generating profits amounting to hundreds of thousands.

The account was created less than a week ago, invested more than $30,000 the day before the attack, and made a profit of more than $408,000. This activity was reported on social media, with people speculating that the person who placed the bet was acting on inside information and may have worked at the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, was quick to point out on X that “insider trading is not only allowed in prediction markets; it is encouraged.”

There have been previous incidents of apparent insider trading in prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, but companies have shown little interest in curbing such behavior. This is partly because these companies believe that the value they offer is not a level playing field for investors, but rather in providing news and ideas. We have reached out to Kalashi and Polymarket for comment, but have not yet received a response.