Stocks gain after a volatile session. The US government shutdown is in its third week

Tariffs have had a modest impact on US growth, but risks remain

8 minutes ago

Tariffs are not hurting the US economy as much as expected, according to a new report from the International Monetary Fund. But it still affects economic growth in the United States.

The International Monetary Fund’s latest revisions to its global economic forecasts showed that US trade deals helped mitigate the impact of tariffs, while quick action by companies helped with initial purchases and redirecting supply chains.

“The good news is that growth reduction is at the modest end of the range,” wrote IMF Research Director Pierre-Olivier Gorinchas. “The reasons are clear. The United States has negotiated trade agreements with various countries and provided multiple exemptions.”

The IMF forecast that US GDP will grow by 2% in 2025 and by another 2.1% in 2026. This is an improvement from the 1.8% US growth forecast announced by the IMF in April when tariff threats between the US and its trading partners escalated. But this growth is still below the January estimate of 2.7%. Global economic growth is also expected to slow slightly in 2025 and 2026, the Fund said.

The IMF report also expects the US inflation rate to decline over the next two years, while US unemployment rates are expected to rise moderately. The report comes as US inflation has not risen significantly despite President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, while US GDP grew by 3.8% in the second quarter.

Read the full article here.

–Terry Lynn

Progressive stocks lead declining stocks in the S&P 500 after weak third-quarter results

35 minutes ago

Progressive Corporation (PGR) was the worst-performing stock in the S&P 500 in the opening hour of trading on Wednesday, falling more than 8%.

The Mayfield Village, Ohio, insurance company reported third-quarter earnings of $4.45 per share on net written premiums of $21.38 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha were expecting $5.25 billion and $21.60 billion, respectively.

Stocks are down about 9% year to date, while the S&P 500 has advanced about 14%.

Fed officials are divided on interest rates

1 hour and 17 minutes ago

Officials at the Federal Reserve are divided over how to set the central bank’s key interest rate in the coming months, and they may not get the data they need to settle their differences anytime soon.

As evidenced by recent speeches and the minutes of the September meeting, division among FOMC members has begun. One group is more concerned about the deteriorating labor market and believes the Fed should cut its benchmark interest rate significantly to avoid job losses. The other group sees inflation as the biggest threat, and calls for a more cautious approach to lowering interest rates.

Investors widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at each of its next two meetings. However, the path after that is more uncertain, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which forecasts interest rate movements based on federal funds futures trading data.

Fed officials are trying to balance the requirements of their dual mandate from Congress to keep inflation low and employment high. The Fed can help a struggling labor market by lowering its key interest rate, or it can fight inflation by keeping it high, but it cannot do both at the same time. Members of the Fed’s 12-member policy committee have different views on how to deal with this dilemma.

Read the full article here.

Bunge stock pops up as forecasts recast, announces post-merger sector changes

1 hour and 57 minutes ago

Shares of Bunge Global (BG) rose 6% less than an hour before the opening bell after the company announced changes to its sector and volume reports, as well as new earnings forecasts, following its merger with Viterra Limited.

The St. Louis-based company said that starting in the current quarter, it will report results for its soybean processing and refining, fineseed processing and refining, other oilseed processing and refining, and grain trading and milling segments.

Additionally, Bunge said it “expects 2025 adjusted EPS to be approximately $7.30 to $7.60, reflecting expected second-half adjusted EPS in the range of $4.00 to $4.25.” Prior to the merger, which closed on July 2, the company saw 2025 adjusted EPS of “about $7.75.”

Entering Wednesday, Bunge shares were up 6% year-to-date.

Kemper stock sank as CEO stepped down

3 hours and 1 minute ago

Shares of Kemper (KMPR) fell more than 8% in pre-market trading after the specialty insurance company announced that CEO Joseph P. Lasher Jr. would step down, effective immediately.

Lasher, who has served as CEO for nearly a decade, will be replaced on an interim basis by executive vice president, secretary and general counsel C. Thomas Evans Jr., the Chicago-based company said. Lasher will remain with Kemper “in an advisory capacity until the end of the year to support the transition process.”

Kemper shares had lost nearly a quarter of their value this year entering Wednesday.

Stock futures rise after a volatile session

3 hours and 37 minutes ago

Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%.

Standard & Poor’s 500 futures rose 0.6%.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.8%.