Takeaways from the 2026 first midterm elections

Washington (AFP) – The midterm elections are approaching.

The 2026 campaign kicked off Tuesday with a high-profile primary in Texas, where Republican Sen. John Cornyn heads toward a runoff against state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Democrats chose State Rep. James Tallarico over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett as their nominee.

Read more: Republicans Cornyn and Paxton advance to Senate runoffs in Texas

For all the focus on Texas, the election in North Carolina could have a greater impact on which party ultimately wins the Senate majority in the fall.

In the first election since President Donald Trump joined Israel in launching dramatic attacks on Iran, there were also contests in Arkansas.

Here are some takeaways from Tuesday night.

Democrats choose their fighter in Texas

By rallying behind Tallarico, the party sided with someone who pledged to change Washington while creating consensus.

The 36-year-old state representative’s victory over Crockett cements his status as a rising star and is likely to make him one of the top Democratic candidates this year. He campaigned with denunciations of “politics as a blood sport” and insisting that people wanted “a return to more timeless values ​​of sincerity, honesty, compassion and respect.”

That was in contrast to Crockett, who gained a national reputation for her fiery style and outspoken hostility toward Trump and other Republicans.

Read more: Democrat James Tallarico wins the Texas Senate primary

Indeed, the biggest differences between Talarico and Crockett were largely style rather than politics.

Crockett said Democrats need to focus on energizing their base, betting that motivating voters in major cities like Houston and Dallas could sink Republicans. Tallarico’s campaign, meanwhile, has taken a more expansive approach, often highlighting his belief in ways that can appeal beyond hard-line Democrats.

This approach is why many Republicans are concerned about Tallarico’s nomination. Although no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, Tallarico’s campaign could prove effective depending on who emerges from the Republican runoff.

The election is not over yet for Texas Republicans

Cornyn and Paxton will continue to fight for the Republican nomination until the May 26 runoff.

For Cornyn, the results keep his hopes alive in the Senate. But it is still a sign of weakness that he cannot win the race outright.

Although Cornyn has at times expressed doubts about Trump, he has been a reliable ally of the president. However, Paxton claimed he was more aligned with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, withdrawing support that would have gone to Cornyn.

Trump did not endorse either candidate during the primaries, but the results may increase pressure on him to take sides. Republicans in Washington expressed concern that Paxton, who has documented political experience, would be a weaker candidate in the general election.

No matter what happens, expect more money to be pumped into the race. Cornyn and well-funded allied groups have spent at least $64 million on TV ads alone since July.

As the race continues, there will be one person missing: Wesley Hunt. The congressman was a late entrant into what was a head-to-head contest between Cornyn and Paxton. His presence in the race further divided Republicans, making it more difficult to avoid a runoff.

The first election of the year did not go entirely smoothly

In two major Texas counties — Dallas and Williamson — there has been significant confusion about where voters can cast ballots. For years, they could vote anywhere in the county. But in this primary, local Republican parties chose not to vote countywide.

Because state law stipulates that both parties must agree to use the countywide system, voters can only vote in their assigned district, forcing many to know exactly where that is.

Things quickly turned chaotic, with lawsuits, changes to voting hours, and Democrats calling it wrong. Crockett called the rule change “an attempt to suppress the vote.” Tallarico’s campaign said it was “deeply concerned.”

Political parties are holding their own primaries in Texas, meaning a repeat of Tuesday’s confusion is unlikely to happen in November.

Read more: What to watch in the subsequent Texas Senate primaries

But this does not happen in a vacuum. Texas plays a pivotal role in Trump’s redistricting efforts to protect Republicans’ narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

The party has also pushed legislation that would impose strict new requirements for proof of citizenship. The bill is a longshot in the Senate but serves as another reminder of Republican efforts to change election rules before November.

Additionally, any raw sentiment could further complicate Democrats’ chances later this year. Crockett’s campaign has said it will file a lawsuit over voting problems, and its accusations of voter suppression are significant in a state where black voters are key to any Democratic candidate’s success.

If Talarico had a chance, he would likely need Crockett’s help in encouraging her disillusioned supporters to support him.

A decisive Senate race is shaping up in North Carolina

One of the high-profile Senate contests this year was almost a done deal until Tuesday.

Democrat Roy Cooper will face Republican Michael Whatley in a crucial race to determine control of the Senate in November.

Read more: The North Carolina primary could pit Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley in the pivotal Senate race

Both parties have reason to feel confident about their chances in the general election.

For Democrats, Cooper is the ideal candidate in one of the most politically competitive states. The former two-term governor has proven he can win statewide elections.

Meanwhile, Republicans are campaigning with a candidate backed by Trump, an endorsement that could help energize voters during a challenging year. As the former chairman of the Republican National Committee, Whatley is familiar with the party’s resources and how they can be deployed during a difficult campaign.

However, each candidate must overcome notable challenges. While Democrats like Cooper succeeded in the governor’s race, they struggled in Senate races. Whatley will also need to make inroads with moderate or independent voters who may not view Trump’s endorsement as a reason to cast a ballot in November. Trump is the reason this is an open Senate contest in the first place. His differences with incumbent Republican nominee, Thom Tillis, prompted the two-term senator to decide against re-election.

Brace for what could be a chaotic race into November, when spending could reach $1 billion.