Tamara Keith and Amy Walter talk about the deal to end the government shutdown

Jeff Bennett:

Well, it was a busy Monday here in Washington following the late-night vote to pave the way for ending the longest US government shutdown ever.

We’re now joined by the Monday Politics duo. This is Amy Walter from The Cook Policy Report with NPR’s Amy Walter and Tamara Keith.

It’s great to see you both.

So, Tam, how do you explain this deal by the seven Democrats and the independent senator caucus with the Democrats to join with the Republicans and eventually reopen the government?

Tamara Keith, NPR:

So, as Senator Kaine said, he was thinking about what they could get. These moderates seemed to think that there would not be much to come from a long-term lockdown, but there was a lot of pain being caused. So that’s what they say there.

I’ll note that all the people who signed this, all the Democrats who signed this are either retiring or don’t have an election next year. This is also an important sign that they felt like they could go out on a limb in a way that others couldn’t.

And the anger of the party, and the rest of the party, was so immediate and so strong, that there are a lot of Democrats out there going up and down the leadership in the House to the people potentially running for president to just regular people, regular people saying, what did they get? What was the deal?

And I think that’s something that irritates Democrats. The Democrats were completely in line last week when they were winning and now they are back in chaos this week.

Jeff Bennett:

Well, focus on this point, Amy, because the message from the Democratic base was clear. They want to see a fight. And there’s a recent NBC poll that explains why Democrats broadly object to the way it all came together.

When you look at these numbers, what do you see?

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report:

right. This goes back to Trump’s first term. Most Democrats tell NBC poll we think Democrats should work or compromise with Donald Trump on standing on principles and potentially doing more harm.

Now, we’ll place the next slide. The next slide, you’ll see, is in 2025, where those numbers have completely flipped, and now 65% of Democrats say Democrats have to put up a fight no matter what, and only a third of Democrats say we think you should compromise with Donald Trump.

We talk a lot about how much the Republican Party has changed in the 10 years since Donald Trump came on the scene. We don’t spend a lot of time talking about how much the Democratic Party has changed in the years since Donald Trump arrived on the scene.

This poll is a great reminder of that. This is the party least interested in giving this administration the benefit of the doubt. They are less interested in believing that there is a settlement that can be reached, and they want that fight, which is why the turmoil will continue for some time.

This is great. It’s across the ideological spectrum. Liberals are not the only ones who are upset. You’ve seen moderate groups like Third Way come out with a statement that also says they shouldn’t have done that, that these eight Democrats shouldn’t have compromised or given their votes to Republicans.

I think the bottom line, Jeff, and all of this is that in the short term, what Democrats see is that they lost a political battle that they thought they could win and then they walk out — 40 days later with nothing concrete to show for their base. There is no extension of ACA credits.

However, for Republicans looking at this, I don’t think they should feel completely comfortable saying they won, because if we learn anything from Tuesday’s election and look at the polling up to then and still, the No. 1 challenge Republicans face in 2026 is the issue of affordability.

And without a vote – I mean, one way to fix the affordability problem is to actually have a vote on extending Obamacare subsidies. That doesn’t seem likely to happen in the House, but Democrats will still make affordability one of the top issues in their campaign next year.

Jeff Bennett:

And that was my next question to you, Tam, actually, is whether Democrats have come out of this 41-day shutdown and counting and the election last Tuesday with this clear and consistent message about affordability, which they hoped, they say, to use as a cudgel against the president.

Tamara Keith:

Yes, and I think Democrats who are upset about this deal take some solace in the fact that this issue of Obamacare subsidies is at the forefront of a lot of people’s minds.

The shutdown extended until open enrollment began and people saw what their health plans would cost without these subsidies. And so some Democrats I talk to say, well, they’ve waged this fight to potentially hurt the president and Republicans, explaining who’s going to be responsible for these rising costs.

And you see President Trump focusing on affordability in a big way. He literally uses the word affordability much more in the days after that election than he did in the weeks and months before it.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Tamara Keith:

Now he talks about affordability in a somewhat different way than a lot of people internalize. But the White House clearly recognizes that this is a problem and this is a problem. That’s also why you see the president trying to offer some kind of health care solution, not the one that health care experts say is particularly practical, which is the idea of ​​just giving people money.

However, the fact that he is offering it is a sign that it is a problem facing Republicans, most notably, eight years after they failed to repeal and replace Obamacare.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

This I think gets to the heart of the matter. I was texting a Republican source after Tuesday’s election, and he said, boy, this looks like a really good opportunity for Republicans or a wake-up call for Republicans about what to do with this health care issue. Vote on Obamacare subsidies. There are a lot of Republicans who want to say they voted for something that reduces costs for people.

Jeff Bennett:

Amy Walter and Tamara Keith, thank you.

Tamara Keith:

Thank you.

Amy Walter:

You’re welcome.