Tamara Keith and Amy Walter talk about the impact of Trump’s SAVES Act campaign

Amna Nawaz:

The midterm primaries are underway as President Trump pushes for a comprehensive voting bill.

To analyze this and the policy of war with Iran, we now turn to the political duo of the two. This is Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report with NPR’s Amy Walter and Tamara Keith.

Good to see you both.

Tamara Keith, NPR:

Welcome.

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report:

It’s great to be here.

Amna Nawaz:

Well, let’s start with the Save America Act, the American Voter Eligibility Protection Act. This legislation, as you know, would require people to provide proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections, as well as show ID when voting in person or by mail.

Totally, President Trump says it’s his top legislative priority. Senate Republicans do not have the votes. Why is it so important to the president? What will Republicans do?

Tamara Keith:

President Trump has had a very thoughtful focus on election laws. Even going back to 2016 after he won, he said there were illegal votes and he would have won more, and he would have won the popular vote if it weren’t for all the illegal votes.

So, this is something he’s been talking about the entire time he’s been on this stage. But this also comes in a broader context, which was mentioned in his State of the Union address for example. He said Democrats could only win if they cheated as he defended this law. This certainly sounds like someone coming up with a message that they could use after the election results if Republicans don’t control the House or don’t control the Senate.

I asked a White House official about this, and he insisted it was not about that. It’s just that the president really cares about election security.

But the reality is that it doesn’t have the votes to pass it in the Senate, and the president is betting a whole bunch of political capital on it. He believes this is one of those 80/20 problems, something they can all work on. I think there are a lot of people in Congress, Republicans in Congress, who want to run on an economic message instead. But this is being challenged in many different ways.

Amy Walter:

Yes.

Amna Nawaz:

We should point out that it is not an 80/20 message. Our latest poll shows that about 59 percent of people say they are more concerned with making sure everyone who wants to vote can, but less, about 41 percent, in stopping what might be called ineligible voters.

And, Amy, we should also point out that non-citizen voting is pretty rare, right?

Amy Walter:

right. It is – definitely.

Here’s another thing that I think is a problem for Republicans who will be on the ballot in 2026. The more the president talks about the election possibly being rigged, or that it’s going to be stolen and the Democrats are going to win anyway because they didn’t pass the SAVE Act, the harder it’s going to be for Republican voters to motivate them to show up and vote in the first place.

I mean, if you’re telling your voters over and over again, hey, this thing is rigged anyway, we’re going to lose, what incentive do they have to show up. This is especially problematic at this time, because Democrats already have an enthusiasm advantage. If you look at the results of special elections held so far this year, you’ll find that Democrats are voting at a much higher level than Republicans.

Same thing with the question at the ballot box. How excited are you to come out to vote? The Democrats are much more enthusiastic. So, while I think the president, and I agree with Tam, I think he’s setting up a straw man of what happens if there’s a bad election, and he can blame that, and we’ve already seen in previous elections, like in 2020, he went to Georgia, and he was very frustrated with the results of that election, and he said it was rigged there.

In runoff elections held a month after the regular election in November, both Republicans lost in those Senate races, in part because the president came down and said they were rigged.

Amna Nawaz:

It’s fake, yes.

Well, in the meantime, midterm primary season is right around the corner. Illinois holds them tomorrow. It’s a very crowded Democratic primary to replace longtime Sen. Dick Durbin. Our latest poll showed Democrats with a nine-point lead, 53 to 44 percent.

Amy, let’s start with you here. What’s at stake for Democrats in these early primaries?

Amy Walter:

So Illinois is a little different because it’s a blue state. So the winner will go on and most likely emerge and become a senator in November.

What we’re seeing in a lot of these Democratic primaries, and Texas was one example of that, is actually a struggle between two theories of the issue between Democrats. The first is, do you want someone who’s more compromising, who’s willing to work across the aisle and maybe win over independent voters who aren’t aligned with Democrats?

Or do you want someone who is basically interested and not interested in compromise? It is a zero sum game. This is a choice we will see in a number of upcoming primaries, especially in places like Maine, Minnesota, and Michigan.

Amna Nawaz:

Tam, how do you look at this?

Tamara Keith:

Yeah, so I would say that these primaries won’t necessarily tell us everything about the future of the Democratic Party. I think there’s an interesting race in the House where there are some generational divides and some other issues that can tell us a little bit about what Democratic voters think of the Democratic candidates.

But it’s important to note that there are a lot of primaries in very red states or very blue states where the primaries are elections. Primary voters will decide who represents that state or district.

Amna Nawaz:

At the same time, we know that the war with Iran continues.

And, Tam, I want to start with you here, because as it enters its third week, gas prices, which were falling early in President Trump’s second term, continue to rise. When does this start to become an issue for midterm voters?

Tamara Keith:

It’s a problem that voters won’t make their final decision in November right now, but it’s definitely a problem. I’m talking to voters about this, and they’re telling me that it costs more to fill the tank and that they’re frustrated and angry and that it happened overnight.

And I think we talked about this last week as well, but President Trump, by not preparing the American public for this war, also did not prepare the American public for sacrifice. So he told Liz, and the others, that this was a small price to pay.

But for people living paycheck to paycheck, this is actually a high price to pay. This is an election that we know will depend on affordability and cost of living. Every voter I talk to says the economy is the most important issue that will determine their vote. Previously, when President Trump was asked about affordability, he pointed to cheap gas prices, hours before the war began.

He was referring to the decline in gas prices. Now these prices are not low. They are up about 85 cents from last week.

Amy Walter:

However, you don’t really see much movement in the president’s overall approval ratings. It does not go up, and it will not go down.

This is because most voters are already polarized. It’s hard to believe that anyone would make a move whether things went well or not. The real question and what people are constantly watching is whether there are going to be some really serious cracks within Republican support for the president.

Right now, that’s not even among those – there was an NBC poll last week that showed, even among Republicans who said they disapprove of the way Trump is handling the Iran issue, overall, they approve of the job he’s doing as president. So, there may be some cracks, but they don’t do much damage to the incumbent.

Tamara Keith:

His voters are giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Amy Walter:

This is correct.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith It’s always a pleasure to start the week with you. Thank you.

Amy Walter:

You’re welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You’re welcome.