Tamara Keith and Amy Walter talk about the shrinking GOP margin in the House

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, a special election in the Lone Star State is eroding the Republican margin in the US House of Representatives, with the federal government partially shut down again.

For more, let’s go to the Monday policy duo. This is The Cook Policy Report’s Amy Walter with NPR’s Amy Walter and Tamara Keith.

Great to see you both.

Tamara Keith, NPR:

It’s good to be here.

Amna Nawaz:

Let’s talk about Texas, there are two races I want to ask you about, one of which is, not a surprise, the 18th Congressional District there. Democrat Christian Menefee won a special election to fill a seat vacant since a member died more than a year ago.

The other, Amy, is for the state Senate seat and Fort Worth, with Democrat Taylor Rahmat winning in a district Trump won by 17 points last year. What happened there?

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report:

Well, I think it’s easy to look at this and think, well, we live in a time now where Trump’s popularity has declined and the backlash against ICE, thinking that this is directly related to that.

But if you look overall, look at all the special elections that have been held since 2025, this fits the pattern that we’ve seen, which is Democrats outperforming Kamala Harris in those areas in 2024 by an average of 13 points.

So that’s part of the headwinds that are still hitting Republicans right now. You can look at 2025 and say, well, maybe these things will ease up as we get to 2026. And clearly this race in Texas shows that none of that is happening at all right now.

Amna Nawaz:

Republican fears in the midterm elections What do we hear from the White House?

Tamara Keith:

Yes, special elections are special. So you can’t have one election and say, wow, this is how everyone will be in the fall.

But what’s interesting about this race is that President Trump endorsed this candidate. He went on social media and said, you have to get out there, you have to vote. And then when asked about losing by a really big margin, the president said: What? I’m just learning about this now. Who are you talking about? I don’t know what you’re talking about. When I’m not on the ballot, sometimes people lose.

This was his response to many of these losses. The reality is that whether he’s on the ballot or not, he’ll be on the ballot in November, not only because Democrats will make sure people vote based on and monitor Trump and his policies, but also because the White House has said it intends to run this election around him.

They want him to campaign once a week. They want him to be the face of the Republican Party.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy, do we know if that would make a difference?

Amy Walter:

Well, for now, what this race and the other special elections have shown is that it’s not just that Democrats are running at a higher level, they actually are. They are more motivated than Republicans to vote.

But independents are largely breaking with Democrats. Again, this is a district that, as I said, Trump won by 17 points. This does not mean that all the districts won in 2026 by 17 will suddenly become Democratic. But if you’re a Republican sitting in a district Trump won by a large margin, typically, you’ll feel safe.

But I look at these numbers, the president’s overall approval ratings. Other data points suggest this could be a very tough night even for Republicans in so-called safe seats by the time we get to the midterms, if this continues.

Amna Nawaz:

Meanwhile, we are in another partial government shutdown.

Tam, we know Democrats have been using this to try to push for changes to ICE’s tactics as part of the immigration crackdown. Just today, we saw the Secretary of Homeland Security say, effective immediately, that they will deploy body-worn cameras in all field offices in Minneapolis. She said they will scale it up nationally, as funding becomes available.

But that’s something the Democrats wanted. Will they get what they want from this closure?

Tamara Keith:

This is one of the things the Democrats wanted. And that’s not the only thing Democrats want. They also want immigration officials and law enforcement officers to remove their masks and identify themselves.

They want judicial orders, rather than administrative orders. It’s basically like an administrative order in that you can sign it yourself if you are a law enforcement official. You need a judge to issue an injunction. As well as changes in the approach to the use of force. Will the Democrats get it all? Maybe not.

However, I will say that one of the interesting things to watch is that there will be hearings with top immigration officials coming to Capitol Hill. They will be pressured. And I expect that not only will they be pressured by Democrats, they will be pressured by Republicans on some of these matters.

So will the Democrats get their ultimate desires? Maybe not. In fact, Republicans have a lot of extreme desires on immigration as well. They want to go further in the other direction. But the potential exists to reach a compromise. There is also the possibility for them to kick the can for a few weeks for the rest of the year.

Amna Nawaz:

How do Americans view the lockdown and repression?

Amy Walter:

Yes.

I think what we’re seeing now is two things. We have Americans and we have partisan voters. I think one of the challenges, and the interesting thing to watch, if there is a compromise, will be how Democratic primary or Democratic partisan voters respond to this.

I was talking last week with a Democratic strategist who said, look, even as we talk about maybe some compromise, maybe getting the administration to do some of the things that we’d like to see them do, I don’t know, as this person said, if it can meet that level of anger within the Democratic base right now about how ICE is doing.

I’ve been watching a lot of campaign ads for the Democratic primaries. ICE occupies a central place in these ads. So Democrats have – Democratic voters have a very clear idea of ​​what they want to see. Well, let’s see what the final package could look like.

Finally, how do Americans see this? Well, when the spotlight is on just the border or public security issues, do we live – are we the people who come here safe, do we want to deport criminals, that’s where Trump has an advantage.

But when it focuses on how ICE carries out its duties, that’s where Trump is at a severe disadvantage. As we know, over the past few weeks, we haven’t talked much about borders. We’ve been talking overwhelmingly about ICE.

Amna Nawaz:

Amy Walter, Tamara Keith, always great to start the week with. Thank you.

Amy Walter:

You’re welcome.

Tamara Keith:

You’re welcome.