The El Niño of 2026 is on track to be the strongest ever

The world can Facing the strongest El Niño since records began, raising the possibility of extreme weather events and significant, long-term economic impacts globally.

A new analysis by Berkeley Earth climatologist Zeke Hausfather paints an alarming picture of the climate phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. Models have consistently predicted that this year’s El Niño — characterized by hotter-than-normal waters in the eastern tropical Pacific — could be among the strongest on record. “This year’s El Niño is not only likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began, but it may end up being the strongest by a truly astonishing margin,” says Housefather’s analysis using El Niño projections based on 14 climate models through July.

Climate researchers measure the strength of El Niño by looking at temperatures in a region of the Pacific Ocean known as El Niño 3.4, which covers the eastern and central part of the ocean basin. The new analysis relies on 667 simulations and compares them to historical records of the most intense El Niño events since 1877. It also separates the intensity of El Niño from background warming caused by fossil fuels, facilitating comparisons between super El Niños.

The model average shows that temperature in the Nino 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above normal levels. This number will exceed the previous record recorded during the 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon by about 0.8 degrees Celsius. It’s rare for records to drop so widely.

“For context, it’s the gap between the strongest and the strongest Fifth The strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5 degrees Celsius. “The models predict something beyond anything we have ever observed,” Hausfather wrote.

Of course, what happens in the equatorial Pacific does not stay in the equatorial Pacific. The El Niño phenomenon rearranges the atmosphere and changes weather patterns around the world. The more intense the El Niño, the more severe the impacts (usually).

Record-breaking ocean heat in the Pacific, combined with warming caused by carbon emissions, could push global temperatures to new highs. But it takes time for the excess heat from El Niño to make its way through the broader climate system, meaning next year is the year we’ll see the full impact of this year’s Pacific heat wave on the average global temperature. According to his forecast, global temperatures in 2027 could reach up to 1.7 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, well above the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold called a relatively safe level of global warming.

But the world won’t have to wait until 2027 to feel the heat of El Niño. A separate analysis by Carbon Summary shows that the odds are increasing for 2026 to set an annual heat record, with the probability increasing from 19 percent in April to 35 percent from July. Forecasters expect extreme weather associated with the El Niño phenomenon to affect different parts of the world in the coming months. In fact, some impacts are already here: Eastern Pacific fisheries are seeing declining catches, with the Peruvian government imposing an anchovy fishing ban this spring.

Hausfather’s analysis also revealed that the phenomenon is developing faster than usual. According to this comparison, this year’s El Niño is developing more quickly than the one in 1997-1998, another super El Niño. It is also significantly different from the 2015 event, which began when the oceans were already showing signs of previous warming — in other words, there was a rapid start. This is especially notable because this year started with La Niña, the cooler-than-normal cousin of El Niño, so there was a little work to do before it started.