The increase in World Cup travel for U.S. companies has not yet materialized

The 2026 World Cup is expected to bring a wave of global soccer fans to North America. But the travel boom is shaping up to look less like one uniform boom and more like a test of pricing power from one city to another, one match to another.

“Demand is real and positive, but it is not evenly distributed across host cities,” said Jay Wardle, president of travel data intelligence company Sogern.

New flight booking data from Sojern shows that most host cities in the U.S. and Canada are seeing year-over-year gains for the tournament window, led by Houston and Dallas. But Seattle and all three Mexican host cities are lagging behind last year’s pace.

The tournament kicks off Thursday in Mexico City and runs through mid-July, concluding with the final at New York New Jersey Stadium – known as MetLife Stadium – in East Rutherford, New Jersey. It is the largest World Cup tournament ever, with 48 teams, 104 matches and matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico.

For hotels, restaurants, airlines, ride-sharing companies and host cities, the offer was clear and straightforward: more teams, more games, more fans, more spending.

FIFA expected the event to contribute up to $17.2 billion to the United States’ gross domestic product.

But Deutsche Bank said that even if it brought 1.2 million international fans to North America, the overall economic impact would likely be limited in a US economy of that size — equivalent to a short-term GDP increase of about 0.05% if FIFA estimates are reached.

Financial wealth is likely to be divided unequally between cities, hotels, restaurants and other businesses that depend on tourism.

Airbnb It said it expects its best event ever, surpassing the 2024 Paris Olympics. The company expects to benefit from families and groups looking for larger accommodations or lower costs per person.

It can also benefit from the length of time travelers stay. Sogren data shows that more than three-quarters of travelers traveling for the World Cup plan to spend between six and 12 nights in their destination.

“We are very excited about the impact of FIFA as we look at the booking patterns coming into the summer.” Marriott CEO Tony Capuano told CNBC. “We’re seeing really strong demand patterns in both FIFA and non-FIFA cities in the U.S.”

Marriott expects the World Cup to lift U.S. revenue per available room by about 40 basis points, Capuano said.

Marriott, the world’s largest hotel chain, said it is particularly well positioned because of its brand recognition and rewards system.

“Because of the breadth of our global footprint, we have deep experience, whether it’s in FIFA, whether it’s the Olympics or the Super Bowl,” Capuano said. “The booking patterns we are seeing closely match our expectations.”

Capuano said some FIFA room combinations were expected to launch and current bookings are “on track” according to Marriott’s expectations. He added that the biggest variable will be in the later rounds, as travel demand could change depending on which national teams qualify.

South Florida is already seeing World Cup-related momentum, said Jim Allen, chairman of Hard Rock International and CEO of Seminole Gaming. More than half of tickets to games in the Miami area are purchased by locals, while the rest come from tourists, Allen said.

He said Miami’s deep ties with Central and South America are helping drive demand, along with the region’s existing tourism infrastructure and soccer culture.

For Hard Rock, Allen said the World Cup already produces high-quality international traffic. He said the company is welcoming guests from multiple continents, including some staying at Hard Rock Hotels for the first time.

He also said event-related casino play exceeds normal levels and rivals the type of activity Hard Rock sees around major events like the Super Bowl and Formula One.

SoJern’s flight booking data shows a roughly 8% increase in Miami, with New York showing roughly the same increase. Dallas-Fort Worth sees a nearly 10% jump and a roughly 13% increase in Houston.

But not all cities see the same improvement. For example, flight bookings in Seattle are down about 21% from this time last year.

The expanded World Cup format means more inventory and more tickets to sell across more matches. Big games, host nation matches and the final are still expected to enjoy premium demand. But the lesser group-stage games in the NFL’s larger stadiums have been difficult to fill, especially with ticket prices remaining high, on par with Super Bowl-level scarcity.

This creates a pricing challenge. Host cities and hoteliers braced for a once-in-a-generation event. But fans are making practical decisions: which match is worth the trip, how far they want to travel, whether to stay in a hotel or rent for a short period, and whether prices still make sense.

Demand for hotels in host cities has “developed differently than many initially expected,” driven in part by lower-than-expected international visits, said Rosanna Maietta, president and CEO of the American Hotel and Lodging Association.

An April survey by the industry group showed that 80% of respondents reported that bookings did not meet expectations. Some were angry that FIFA had canceled large rooms they had previously booked.

But she said AHLA members are now seeing higher demand, consistent with shorter booking times for larger events.

“Unlike usual leisure travel, many visitors are still finalizing their plans and obtaining tickets,” Maita said. “The industry is anticipating some acceleration in late bookings in the run-up to the individual matches and we believe attendance at the stadiums will be strong.”

Sogren said that historically, 35% of hotel reservations in World Cup host cities are made in the last seven days before travel.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino played down any concerns about disappointing travel results. “We have to do the analysis after the end of the World Cup. We’ve never seen this many ticket requests,” he told CNBC’s Sarah Eisen on Tuesday.

Hotel REITs with greater exposure to full-service hotels could benefit from World Cup demand as team delegations, sponsors and business groups use not only the rooms but also meeting spaces and food and beverage outlets, Deutsche Bank said. The company generally generated 50 to 75 basis points of revenue per available room in its tournament-related hotel REIT models. It is also expected that luxury hotels will benefit more than budget properties.

Restaurants may be better positioned to capitalize on a larger scale. Deutsche Bank said food service companies should get a boost from tourism and viewing parties, especially restaurants close to stadiums and host cities, delivery-heavy concepts like pizza and wings, and sports bars showing games during North American time zones.

Derek Evans, CEO of Marcus Samuelsson Group, told CNBC that in the restaurant business, it’s too early to count his chickens.

“You haven’t seen the fandom really start yet,” he said. “When your country’s team starts winning, that’s when travel budgets go out the window.”

Ride sharing companies e.g Uber and Lyft It could also see an increase in demand for matches.

The key question for host cities is whether even the world’s biggest sporting event has a price cap.

Disclosure: Versant, parent company of CNBC, carries Olympic coverage produced by NBC Sports on its networks, including USA Network and CNBC.